The Fairbanks Fred Meyer posting a real Alaska temp

The frigid danger of global warming

Scientists are now warning that one of the least recognized threats of climate change might be deadly cold.

No, this has nothing to do with the start of a new Ice Age or even a Little Ice Age.

The problem, according to a research letter published in the Journal of American Medical Association (JAMA), is the oscillation in temperatures blamed on warming-driven climate change. This is what is believed to have caused some unusually cold “cold snaps” in the Lower 48 states.

“Although mean temperatures are increasing in the US, studies have found that climate change has been linked with more frequent episodes of severe winter weather in the U.S. over the past few decades, which may in turn be associated with increased cold-related mortality,” they wrote.

The data they presented was somewhat more definitive than a possible association.

It reflected a more than doubling of the number of deaths linked to cold exposure between 1999 and 2022.

“Cold-related, aged-adjusted mortality rates during this period increased from 0.44 per 100 000 persons in 1999 to 0.92 per 100 000 persons in 2022 (109 percent increase),” they reported.

This is nearly four times the number of heat-related deaths reported by a study published by JAMA in August. It reported the deaths from heat had doubled, but pegged the age-adjusted mortality rate at 0.26 per 100,000.

USA Today reported the heat-death study “found the death toll was still staggering” and labeled it “the latest grim milestone in a warming trend fueled by climate change.”

Perspective

Both temperature-related increases in mortality are significant, but the overall death rate remains comparatively low.

The age-adjusted mortality rate for motor-vehicle traffic deaths in the U.S. reached 12 per 100,000 in 2020, according to the Centers for Disease Control, and hardly anyone noticed. 

Heat and cold deaths, however, attract more attention because they are so unusual. It’s the old, man-bites-dog phenomenon. 

“People are dying from the cold at an alarming rate in the United States,” the Vice website declared two days ago after discovering the cold study. “The numbers doubled within the past decade, with the number of cold-related deaths rising significantly between 2017 and 2022.”

The hard-left website proceeded to follow the predictable narrative, declaring that “another factor compounding the issue is homelessness. Since 2016, levels of homelessness have increased, leaving a lot of people literally out in the cold just as the effects of climate change really started to kick in, making winters by and large harsher than ever before.

“The deaths are most common in people over 75 and among Black and Native Americans. As for where it’s happening most, that would be the Midwest, a region with historically harsh winters growing even more unforgiving as the years pass.”

The authors of the letter were more circumspect in their conclusions.

“The underlying drivers of this trend warrant further research,” they wrote, “and may include more frequent extreme winter weather events and/or the rising burden of risk factors for cold-related mortality such as homelessness, social isolation, and substance use.”

Both narcotic drugs and alcohol increase hypothermia risks by masking the danger of cold weather.

In pioneering studies of alcohol and hypothermia at the University of Minnesota-Duluth in the 1980s, Dr. Robert Pozos discovered that the physical danger from drinking in cold weather is minimal, but the mental danger is significant. The alcohol, he concluded, magnifies the influence of alcohol in muddying thinking.

Thirty-three of the record 51 deaths of people found dead outdoors in Alaska’s largest city last year were linked to alcohol or drugs, according to local media reports. Though many of those deaths came in harsh weather, the Anchorage Police Department reported that April, a month with relatively moderate temperatures was the deadliest month with eight people dead and July, a warm month, was second with seven dead.

Many reasons

Many of the homeless are also saddled with significant health problems which make them more susceptible to death from any and all sorts of causes, but there are good reasons to believe the nation’s now large homeless population is contributing in some part to the increase in cold deaths.

As the Boston-based authors of the research letter noted, “cold-related mortality was highest among older adults, who are more susceptible to cold weather due to limited thermoregulatory response and greater prevalence of chronic conditions. The burden of cold-related deaths was also high among American Indian, Alaska Native, and Black people, consistent with the disproportionate exposure of racial and ethnic minority groups to structural risk factors such as lack of home insulation or heat.”

The elevated death rate among Alaska Natives is ironic in that they managed to survive for millennia in what would now be considered primitive housing in Arctic and Central Alaska where temperatures regularly plunged to 40- or 50-degrees below zero.

As the late, Alaska anthropologist Richard Nelson once observed, “Inupiaq Eskimos on the arctic coast, and Athabascan Indians in the interior have thrived for thousands of years through the extremes of high latitude winters. They are among the world’s greatest experts in dealing with deep cold. Long before the arrival of Euro-Americans, these people had perfected some of the world’s warmest clothing and ingenious shelters; they learned the best ways to behave in extreme cold; and they mastered the art of using cold for their own benefit.”

But time has brought many changes to Alaska, some of them bigger than climate change or global warming as it is often called.

Life in America has become so comfortable that one can’t help but wonder whether part of the increase in deaths from both heat and cold is related to people who’ve lost respect for the dangers the natural world failing to take necessary precautions when the weather threatens, or ignore the dangers because they are intoxicated.