Commentary

Chief advisor

Roland Maw at the Alaska Board of Fisheries/Craig Medred photo

The outlaw Roland Maw, the man who quit the Alaska Board of Fisheries in 2105 and then led a willing Anchorage Daily News to suggest that his resignation had something to do with Kenai fish wars, appeared unafraid of that combat zone when he appeared before the body on Sunday to explain how to handle the latest battle.

Maw is still awaiting trial on multiple felony charges that accuse him of stealing from the state’s Permanent Fund. The reason he resigned in 2015 was to try to hide the fact he was a resident of Montana or at least claiming to be one.

After Montana found out he was also claiming to be an Alaskan, it prosecuted Maw for illegally obtaining resident hunting licenses. In that case, Maw conceded to being a liar, which led to a fine and his temporary loss of hunting and fishing privileges in both Alaska and Montana.

Maw’s problems in Montana eventually led the state of Alaska to investigate his various Alaska residency claims. That eventually led to 12 felony charges against him related to fraudulently obtaining Permanent Fund Dividends and otherwise lying about his Alaska residency on official documents.

An attorney for Maw has tried every legal trick in the book over the course of the last four years to keep an Alaska jury from hearing the case. Maw’s trial, according to several attorneys, may now be the most delayed in state criminal history. It is at this time set for March 9 in Juneau, but if the past is any precedent, Maw will find some way to again delay it.

The crux of his defense is that all his actions were done electronically and someone else must have gotten onto his computer to commit the bad acts. There has, however, been no offer of evidence that he refunded to the state any PFD money that mysteriously showed up in his bank account.

Despite his legal troubles, the commercial driftnet fisherman and one-time executive director of United Cook Inlet Drifters Association (UCIDA) – the region’s most powerful commercial fishing lobby – has stayed active in Alaska fishery politics.

He was intimately involved in the efforts of former Gov. Bill Walker to end-run the management Board long ago created by the Legislature to try to minimize political involvement in the issues of allocation of fish between competing state user groups, mainly commercial fishermen.

At that time, the fights were primarily between various gear types: purse seiners, trollers, drift gillnetters and set gillnetters. Since then, subsistence fishermen, personal-use dipnetters and anglers have all entered the fight, and the latter two groups have become prime adversaries of drift and set gillnetters in the Inlet that surges southwest from downtown Anchorage.

The commercial interests catch most of the fish. The Anchorage metro area is home to more than half the state’s population, many of them dipnetters or anglers who don’t think they’re getting a fair share of those fish.

Maw’s world

In his testimony to the Board, Maw suggested the state strayed off the “railroad tracks” of sound management when it started stuffing the Kenai River with salmon. The presention was a little hard to follow. His written testimony might be more clear.

Maw there takes issue with the Bayesian statistical method being used to forecast returns, arguing that “we are now experiencing some of the smallest returns in recent history including, in 2019, the smallest sockeye return in over 40 years. The forecast for 2020. If new information about the status of the fry population in the Kenai system is correct, no one will be allowed to harvest Kenai River salmon in a couple of years; no dipnetting, no sportfishing and no commercial fishing.”

The 2020 forecast calls for a return of 2.2 million salmon to the Kenai – 1.4 million less than the 20-year average. The forecast is largely based upon the number and size of fry rearing in Skilak Lake.

The 26.1 million fry in the lake in 2016, the parent year for the bulk of the 2020 run, were more plentiful than the 20-year average 19.3 million, but smaller at an average weight of 0.8 grams versus 1.0 grams), according to the forecast.

Larger fry are generally expected to have better survival odds than smaller fry, but nature doesn’t always hue to general expectations.

Scientists studying salmon in the Salish Sea off the shores of the state of Washington and the Canadian province of British Columbia reported in November that “the prevailing assumption that ‘bigger is better’ may be true in many circumstances, but there is evidence that populations of smaller juvenile salmon survive at higher rates than larger fish during their first several months at sea.”

The 2.2 million return is low by modern standards, though not so by the standards of the 1970s. And it is more than adequate to support sport and personal-use fisheries.

Even that low return of 1.7 million sockeye in 2018 – a return 800,000 fish short of the forecast – would have had plenty of fish to support sport and personal-use fisheries if not for an early commercial harvest which cropped off a sizable chunk of the run.

With the 2018 run forecast at 2.5 million fish, Fish and Game expected a non-commercial harvest (dipnetters and anglers) of about 700,000 sockeye. Those dipnet and sport fisheries are capable of catching more fish than that, but only when large numbers get through to the Kenai.

In years of expected weak returns, like this one, the number of fish allowed to escape nets to make it into the river is reduced (the escapement goal was lowered to 900,000 in 2018) and non-commercial harvests decline.

Give the data including 2018, a claim that the Kenai is headed toward a production level that would force a prohibition on all fishing can only be described as fear-mongering. And Maw’s basic argument against the new models, which are arguably as bad or as good as the old models in trying to predict a future full of variables that cannot be anticipated, is that state fisheries managers with their fancy math just can’t be trusted.

“The models are mathematically driven,” Maw said. “Mathematical models cannot incorporate field observations of run size, age composition, weights (fry, smolt and adult), run timing, health, vigor, climate change effects, and spawning success that all come into the stock assessment process.”

Mathematical models actually can incorporate much of that data of it is available. Some is and some isn’t.

At a population level, the health and vigor of a salmon population is hard to determine exactly and climate change effects are largely an unknown. A warming ocean in the 2010s was expected to reduce salmon production but instead production is at record levels although that of some species – Kenai sockeye among them –  has decreased.

No one knows why, but the decline appears to be linked to ocean survival given the weakness of most sockeye systems in the northeast Gulf of Alaska. The Susitna River to the north of the Kenai is forecast to see a return significantly below the 20-year average, too, although it has seen low escapements for decades now.

They have not produced the bigger runs of fish Maw and other UCIDA members envision. If the Susitna is indicative, it’s probable that lowering the number of Kenai spawners would only lower the number of returning fish.

Still, Maw and his UCIDA comrades could be right with their pitch that the Kenai has seen some sizable salmon returns at escapements of 600,000 to 800,000; so lower the spawning goal and let us catch more fish in our nets.

As Maw notes, only mathematicians can trust fancy math.

“It’s very difficult for non-statisticians to argue the details of the Bayesian methodology in particular applications,” he said. “But we can all clearly observe the reduction of the Kenai late river-run sockeye returns as escapement and in-river goals have been increased.”

Or at least those who want to see that can observe it. There are plenty of ways of looking at the data and seeing something else. This isn’t as simple as 2 +2 = 4 because of all the variables involved.

So basically, at the end of the day, Maw’s presentation came down to whether Alaskans should trust UCIDA, and defacto leader Maw, pumping up the many times debunked over-escapement theory, or state biologists.

Who would you trust?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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24 Comments
6 years ago

Craig your response shows your bias and lack of objectivity. First I am not a friend of Maw. Nice try at guilty by association. I am a professional who works with all types of fishery issues. As past President of UCIDA I am an associate of Maw. We have never had dinner together or done anything outside a business relationship. You jumped to a unfounded conclusion just like a lot of your conclusions. Nice diversion on trying to paint everything Maw says as suspect. Why not discuss those points instead of character attacks. Last I heard one is innocent until proven guilty. Just for the record Maw was not found guilt in Montana. His plea had no guilt associated with it. Montana accepted that as it was not a strong case. Was he guilt probably but no jury or judge determined that. So lets stick to the issues and stop calling people names or being uninformed.

6 years ago
Reply to  craigmedred

This will be my last comment on this. “In a criminal proceeding, a defendant may enter a plea of nolo contendere, in which the defendant does not accept or deny responsibility for the charges but agrees to accept punishment. The plea differs from a guilty plea because a “no contest” plea cannot be used against the defendant in another cause of action.”

So my point was he never admitted guilt but accepted the punishment. It goes on his record and people assume he plead guilty which you implied. Also for various reason one can plead nolo just to reduce their court costs and have it part of a plead deal. Have you not wondered why Montana did not pursue this and throw the book at him. I think they gave him a minimal fine relative to the number of charges. Craig I know he is guilty inMontana based on other evidence but the State accepted thenolo plead. Something was wrong with their case.

Now back to the main point. Whether someone is bias or has a criminal record allows one to look closely at their position and see if it has merit. Inmy 4 decades in UCI I have been accused of every act imaginable by various user groups. All of those like your attack on Maw are diversions. Why if you are pointing out flaw groups point out KRSA unethical history or your associate Mr Penney business history or that Mr. Penney tried to get me fired for telling the truth. My point it serves no purpose to do that. It is best to take on user group bias with good data. You can serve a valuable role in that regard but your fishery writing has been incomplete on facts in UCI.

6 years ago
Reply to  craigmedred

Maw was probably the worst choice. I do not question he guilt in Montana. I said I had other evidence which confirmed that.

Relative to Alaska 2 judges said the State acted improperly. That is not Maw’s fault. Everyone should have fair hearing. A number of the delay were at the State’s request. I guess they changed attorneys and/or had emergency issues. After the last judge rule the case could go forward the State is to blame.

So I have a question for you. What if Maw presents peer reviewed data that indicates a new conclusion about UCI fishery management. Should it be rejected because of Maws history? Will his history keep some from even looking at the findings. Unfortunately that is happening

Relative to my history people forget I raised the goals in the Kenai and Kasilof so people could argue over abundant sockeye. Yes I spoke up when KRSA tried to use goals to achieve an allocation objective. Bob and the boys did not like that. I have never lied to anyone on fish issues.

6 years ago
Reply to  craigmedred

I have read a lot of ucida publications. They are not well done relative to the writing and conclusions. The data usually comes from ADFG. Back in2003 they asked me to review a document on Susitna sockeye. I found numerous error and misstatements and pointed them out. They made no changes and that was the last time I reviewed anything they prepared. So we agree that the documents should be closely read.

Relative to early run chinook there is no doubt the mainstem fish were overharvest and eliminated. When that happens recovery is problematic, especially if there is competition with late run fish for rearing area. I believe Sport Fish Division has failed to put resources toward understanding chinook rearing issues. They also fail to monitor the distribution of the spawners. Hell they won’t even walk Slikok Creek which is quarter mile from the office when low water appeared to prohibit spawning. They believe just counting with sonar is good enough. Of course they failed after spending millions of dollar over 30 year period

6 years ago

Maw shows how ridiculous the Dunleavey recall effort is. A key premise for getting rid of Big Bad Mike is that he was two weeks late in appointing a judge. Two weeks they say. OMG … two weeks! Well, two weeks is nothing compared to judges delaying a trail for Maw for 5 years. Or maybe 6 years. If anyone should be recalled, it’s out state judges that take large state paychecks and won’t do their job and actually judge.

6 years ago

Maw is probably not the best spokesman for gillnetters in Cook Inlet given his legal troubles, but once again Medred wants to punish one consumptive user group by putting more fish in the river to benefit another consumptive user group – commercial sport fishing guides & lodges and the science be damned!

6 years ago

Craig I just have to laugh at your attention to Maw. You would attack him to discredit his position. Ad hominem attacks serve no purpose. But let’s get the record straight. Most delays in his trail are at the request of the State or the incompetence of State attorneys before a judge.

I doubt you have read the escapement goal report on sockeye but what Maw is referring is the lack of scientific rigor by the staff. The present commissioner instructed the staff he wants more fish in the river. That bias tainted the process and report. For example the authors said the brood year interaction model, which was the best fit to the data, was flawed and not used. However that model has been reviewed every few years by scientists in and out of the Department since 1999. So it did not give results the Commissioner wanted it was out. A second justification was the concept of varying escapement goals was not in the best interests of the State. That is a-policy call and has no place in a scientific report. Plus the authors provide no data to support that position.

Finally for those commenting on overescapement as a myth you just demonstrate your ignorance. Every model used by the state for chinook and sockeye assumes decreasing yield with escapements beyond msy.

Craig you really failed your readers on this one. Call me if you want to learn the errors of your way

6 years ago
Reply to  craigmedred

First documented liar works in general discussion but not in science. Whether someone beats their wif or not has no place in evaluating a scientific finding. The data and strength of the findings is what matters. So Craig you missed that lesson in school.

Next you discussing escapement goal and selective in picking parts of reports shows you have no clue about sockeye salmon biology. You have no scientific publications or credible standing on this subject. No sweat lots of biologist have little understanding on sockeye production models and to deal with uncertainty. zThat is why the Bd of Fish is outdated. The Bd should allocate fish and not set goals. Frank Rue made a huge mistake in allowing Coffey to do that in 1999.

I am leaving the State after 44 years here and numerous sockeye publications. No on even asked a question. So Craig you may not-any one to listen to Maw. I claim the same about you

6 years ago
Reply to  craigmedred

This reply makes my point. Those scientists who fake data are caught because the data could not be repeated. Usually the media make a big splash about a finding only to have to take it back as the process uncovers the truth.

Escapement goals set the goal posts for management not yield. So the Board has to come up with allocation plans that reflect that management constraint. There are all types of ways to do that.

In reality the Board is using goals to destroy the commercial fishery.

Finally relative to Maw. UCIDA should use him in a different way. However I remember allegations against you for unethical behavior. I would hope people would discuss the merits of your position not past allegations used to taint the process

6 years ago

I trust Maw.

6 years ago

Alternative photo caption: “Slick photographer earns himself a hog-tying somethin’ powerful, Cartwright brothers settle down to plate of biscuits and gravy.”

6 years ago

When I first clicked on the photo, I thought that those two stomachs reminded me of a Lamaze class that I attended with my wife years ago.

6 years ago

Seems like taking the word of a guy who doesn’t know what state he lives in, who has allegedly defrauded ALL Alaskans for years, who lied about discovering a species of trout, and who lied about his residency in another state to illegally kill game isn’t a very sound idea to me. Why would UCIDA not distance themselves from this guy? Certainly he’s not the best of the bunch.

6 years ago

The myth of “Over escapement” needs to be buried forever. It needs to be challenged every time it is used by the commercial interests or by State employees.

6 years ago
Reply to  Bob Butler

Why is it that those who think overescapement in UCI watersheds is a myth,( such as krsa), also believe that we are putting too many hatchery fish in the ocean. I don’t get it. Do they really think the ocean has a limited capacity but freshwater streams don’t.

6 years ago

Never trust a lying poacher.
Never trust Common Core math.
The rest? Well, the rest is what my good buddy P.T. Barnum used to say, “I don’t care what the newspapers say about me as long as they spell my name right.”