If you’re an older Alaskan and you’re not doing your best to hide from the SARS-CoV-2 virus these days, you haven’t been paying attention.
The seven-day moving average for infections that develop into the disease Covid-19 is now falling from its peak of nearly 1,300 a month ago, according to the Worldometer tracker, but at 673 per day as of Saturday, the Alaska rate is still 50 to 60 times higher than back in the spring of 2020 when the state was in lockdown.
No matter how old you are, you likely remember how terrified many were then.
Still, the latest pandemic infection rate isn’t the most important number coming from the state of Alaska. The death number is far more important.
And it pretty clearly says Alaska has become the proverbial no place for old men, and it isn’t much better for old women.
Look at the numbers on the state Department of Health and Social Services Covid-19 “dashboard:”
- Nearly three-quarters of those hospitalized – 72 percent – are over the age of 50 and more than half of those – 54 percent – are over age 60.
- Almost nine out of 10 of the dead – 88 percent – are over age 50 and more than three-quarters of those – 77 percent – over age 60.
- More than half – 55 percent – of those hospitalized are men, and almost two-thirds of the dead – 61 percent – are male.
All of this is in a state where the population of old folks, while growing, still makes up a relatively small part of the population. Those over age 60 comprise only 16 percent of Alaskans and that only increases to a little over a quarter – 28 percent – of the general population when you add in the 50 to 59s.
Twenty-eight percent of the population accounts for 88 percent of the deaths.
Suffice to say, the number of hospitalizations and deaths among the old folk is way out of proportion with their numbers, but this should come as no surprise.
Anyone can catch Covid-19, as the mainstream media has been hyping since the beginning of the pandemic, but the reality is that the disease poses the greatest threat to the old and those with co-morbidities or what used to be more often called “chronic diseases” – heart disease, diabetes and various cancers chief among them.
“Many chronic diseases are caused by a shortlist of risk behaviors,” adds the U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC):
- Tobacco use and exposure to secondhand smoke
- Poor nutrition, including diets low in fruits and vegetables and high in sodium and saturated fats
- Lack of physical activity
- Excessive alcohol use
Fit and surviving
The third item on that list – physical activity – has been pointed out as a factor in Covid-19 deaths almost since the beginning of the pandemic.
Obesity, which is visually obvious to everyone, has become the linchpin identifier for a general lack of fitness, but British researchers were reporting as far back as the summer of 2020 that lack of physical fitness appeared to be even more important.
They mined the country’s Biobank, a storehouse for medical records, for data on “walking pace,” which is generally considered a reasonable measure of fitness.
Fit people almost always walk faster than the unfit.
The Brits found 400,000 records on walking pace and reported discovering that “slow walkers had the highest risk of severe COVID-19 regardless of obesity status. For example, compared to normal weight brisk walkers, the odds of severe Covid-19 in obese brisk walkers was 1.39, whereas the odds in normal weight slow walkers was 2.48.”
Lack of functional fitness, they concluded, “appears to be a risk factor for severe COVID-19 that is independent of obesity.”
Those at the lowest risk of hospitalization or death from Covid-19 are, of course, fit people of healthy weight. They also appear to be those with the lowest risk of “long Covid,” as it has been called, after catching the disease.
“Long COVID was characterized by symptoms of fatigue, headache, dyspnea and anosmia and was more likely with increasing age and body mass index and female sex,” an international team of researchers reported in a peer-reviewed study in Nature Medicine back in May.
There’s that nasty body mass index (BMI) issue rearing its head again. If you’re an older Alaskan, Covid-19 already poses more of a risk to you than to your younger friends, and if you’re an older Alaska wrestling with your weight (as many of us are), you’re just doubling down on the risk.
People can debate vaccines until hell freezes over, and there are people who are simply and philosophically opposed to injecting chemicals or any kinds of medical treatments into their bodies.
All of us should respect that. They are also a minority.
Most of the Baby Boomers who grew up with drugs, sex, and rock and roll have already injected into their bodies or swallowed a lot of things including some things – like LSD – once labeled extremely dangerous.
The mRNA vaccines that are cutting the odds of a serious Covid-19 infection by 50 to 75 percent are indeed new and experimental. They might even have long-term consequences of which even the best scientists are unaware because not even the best scientists can predict the future.
But the long-term isn’t that long for those 50 and over. Most are already closer to the end than the beginning. For those age 50 today, the strange journey called life is, on average, 70 percent done, according to the life expectancy charts.
The percentage just grows for every year over 50. The numbers are better for women, but not that much.
With or without Covid-19, they are on the downward slope. It’s a lot different for the younger age groups on which Covid-19 hasn’t taken nearly the same toll.
About 60 percent of those now coming down with COVID-19 in Alaska are under the age of 40, according to the Alaska Department of Health and Social Services. This is part of the national trend, and these people are fairing far better than older Americans.
Nationally, the U.S. Centers of Disease Control uses the 18 to 29 age group as its baseline for assessing the risks of death from COVID-19. It has reported slightly more than 7.8 million infections in that group and 3,959 deaths.
That puts the risk of dying at 0.05 percent, which is not much higher than the overall risk of death from flu among all Americans in a bad year for flu.
Unfortunately, the flu – like Covid-19 – doesn’t like old people or those already suffering from chronic diseases. So age-related deaths for flu are higher for flu just as they are for Covid-19, but not nearly to the same extreme.
The CDC now calculates the risks of death from Covid-19 for those age 30 to 39 are about four times greater than for the 18 to 29 cohort. Those odds there are still pretty good.
If someone in this age group becomes infected, and if the infection develops into COVID-19 (some 40 to 60 percent of the infected remain free of symptoms), the risk of dying is about 0.2 percent.
Thus, in gambling terms, the odds are about 99.8 percent or – 499 in 500 – that you’ll survive.
They are, of course, lower if you are already suffering from a so-called “co-morbidity” – diabetes, cancer, obesity or other. But it’s at ages over 40 that the disease really starts to get dangerous for most people.
Compared to that baseline group, the CDC puts the risks at:
- 10 times greater for those 40 to 49.
- 30 times greater for those 50 to 64.
- 90 times greater 65 to 74.
- 220 times greater for those 75 to 84.
- And a staggering 570 times greater for those over 85.
What Alaska is witnessing now is these multipliers in action.
If you are a member of the older age groups, you could mask up and go about life as if it were “normal,” but don’t be fooled into thinking masking makes much difference. It doesn’t.
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) now calculates a 5 to 6 percent drop in Alaska deaths by Jan. 1 if the state were to institute universal masking.
Do the math: If you’re in that 65 and over age group with a 90-times greater chance of dying from Covid-19 than those age 18 to 29, how much difference does a 5 percent shift make?
The reality is that it pretty much gets lost in the statistical noise.
If you’re older, the safest thing to do today is what was the safest thing to do when lockdown was ordered: stay away from other people.
And be thankful there has been no government edict ordering a lockdown on old folks, which – if one really wanted to deal with Covid-19 – might be a more sensible thing to do than order masking.
Categories: Commentary, News
PFIZER TELLS KIDS VAX WILL MAKE THEM ‘SUPERHEROES,’ GIVE THEM ‘SUPERPOWERS’
Pfizer is telling young children that their experimental mRNA covid injection will make them “superheroes” and give them “superpowers.”
Did Maddie De Gray get superpowers after being enrolled as a guinea pig for Pfizer’s experimental injection?
She’s just one of many “superhero” children the supervillains at Pfizer used to test their experimental mRNA injection and then hung out to dry after suffering from horrible side effects.
The Big Pharma giant released this disgraceful propaganda ad for their “superhero shot” on Monday:
Currently there os flooding of hospitals due to heart issues now that Covid is pretty much nonexistent? Imagine that..
Australia Is Now Threatening Citizens With Seizure Of Homes & Bank Accounts Over Covid Violations
Multiple reports out of Australia over the past days have confirmed that state and territory governments are threatening to seize the homes and bank accounts of citizens over unpaid “COVID violation” fines. This as much of the country’s population are now living under vaccine mandates linked to employment: take the jab or face termination, many Aussies are being told.
For example, a new report in Daily Mail has reviewed fresh government data compiled by the Queensland health authority. It found that “Queenslanders who received fines for breaking Covid-19 rules risk having their homes seized and bank accounts frozen in a government crackdown to collect $5.2 million in repayments.”
Didn’t Mussolini try that? Hmm, Let’s go Brandon…
Remember when Fauci & Biden said getting the vaccine was the best way to “stop the spread”?
Seems like the science is proving them wrong once again… #FJoeBiden #FireFauci
The question remains – which country currently has the most diabolical government – the Chinese or Americans? Democrats are in “full-destruct/rogue” mode to rebuild-back to suit their Communist/Marxist ideology. In other words this is about CONTROL…
Don’t get me started about the phony “Climate Change” and the control over your lives they are currently devising.
Remember this all start in America under Trump…I knew when he signed his “15 days to stop the spread” order that we were in deep trouble.
It was the first time in the history of America that folks were not allowed to visit their churches.
Just like communist China, the first thing to go is religion & customs like holidays.
The Corporate Totalitarian take over led by Bill Gates, George Soros & Klaus Schwab has no geo-political boundaries…..ALL politicians are for hire!
Steve, come on, it all started and the oppression continues to this day under Democrat govenors. Florida is wide open, no mask mandates, people keep their jobs, business is booming and Covid cases are at a trickle. AND Florida is full of seniors. It is funny, have a family member who is Democrat, hated Trump, from an oppressive blue state, yadda who moved to Florida for 6 months and 1 day to escape the Democrat policies je voted for. Then turns around and wines about DeSantis. Amazing. You see how from day one Trump left office the country is going to chit? Never has there EVER been an anti-American and destructive group as the current wave of Democrats.
I know U love Trump…that’s fine, but let’s be honest.
Trump is as far invested in this mRNA scam as Pelosi is.
Donald could have fired Fauci, but he chose to stand by and allow the CDC to rip apart our economy with one mandate after the next…Trump also was sitting in the WH as both Republican & Democratic governors announced their initial lock-downs…”just to flatten the curve”.
This current great re-set had ALL global leaders onboard with Big Pharma’s agenda.
Yes, Desantis is fighting the vax mandates better than most but I stand by my comment that this ALL started under Trump.
Which mandates did Trump make?
Check out Australia. It may be second to none…
Reminds me of this nonsense..
“The Arctic Ocean is warming up, icebergs are growing scarcer and in some places the seals are finding the water too hot according to a report to the Commerce Department yesterday from the Consulate at Bergen, Norway. Reports from fishermen, seal hunters and explorers all point to a radical change in climate conditions and hitherto unheard of temperatures in the Arctic zone. Exploration expeditions report that scarcely any ice has been met as far north as 81 degrees 29 minutes. Soundings to a depth of 3,100 meters showed the gulf stream still very warm. Great masses of ice have been replaced by moraines of earth and stones, the report continued, while at many points well known glaciers have entirely disappeared. Very few seals and no white fish are found in the eastern Arctic, while vast shoals of herring and smelts which have never before ventured so far north, are being encountered in the old seal fishing grounds. Within a few years it is predicted that due to the ice melt the sea will rise and make most coast cities uninhabitable.” I must apologize. I neglected to mention that this report was from November 2, 1922, as reported by the AP and published in The Washington Post 96 years ago. This must have been caused by the Model-T Ford’s emissions or possibly from horse and cattle farts.
Now that’s funny, and not in the haha kind of way funny!
Don Young Yields His Time and DeFazio Goes Ballistic
While it remains unclear who the comments were meant for, DeFazio uttered the words on the hot mic when Rep. Don Young (R-AK)’s time to speak was yielded to Mast to speak further on his amendment.
‘F*cking A**hole’: Democrat Peter DeFazio Caught on Hot Mic Before Republican Congressman Spoke
JACOB BLISS29 Oct 2021438
Democrat Rep. Peter DeFazio (D-OR), chair of the House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure, was caught on a hot mic blurting profanity when time was yielded to Rep. Brian Mast (R-FL) during a committee hearing Wednesday.
Later in the hearing, the Oregon Democrat tried to recognize Young. However, the Alaska Republican yielded his time to Mast, allowing him additional time to speak about his amendment.
After Young yielded, before Mast started speaking, DeFazio was caught saying, “Oh, you fucking asshole.”
Rep. Beth Van Duyne (R-TX), who was also in the committee hearing, posted the exchange on social media, saying it was a “Perfect example of how Democrats approach bipartisan debate on important issues.”
“Appalling how Dem. Chair @RepPeterDeFazio talks about Rs offering amendments. Proud to support @RepBrianMast in not allowing vaccine mandates to further damage our supply chain,” she added:
FDA “WE’RE NEVER GOING TO LEARN ABOUT HOW SAFE THIS VACCINE IS UNLESS WE START GIVING IT”
Kind of like Pelosi’s, “We have to pass the bill to see what’s in it…”.
VAERS COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports
I haven’t been able to find much recent data from the UK about vaccinated vs unvaccinated death rate other than an older report noted below. There will be a new report coming out on November 1 that covers from January 2 until September 24 that should shed some more light on the subject.
The older report says
“In England, between 2 January and 2 July 2021, there were 51,281 deaths involving coronavirus (COVID19); 640 occurred in people who were fully vaccinated, which includes people who had been infected before they were vaccinated.
The risk of death involving COVID-19 was consistently lower for people who had received two vaccinations compared to one or no vaccination, as shown by the weekly age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) for deaths involving COVID-19.
“Breakthrough cases” are where infection has occurred in someone who is fully vaccinated, whereas we define a “breakthrough death” as a death involving COVID-19 that occurred in someone who had received both vaccine doses and had a first positive PCR test at least 14 days after the second vaccination dose; in total, there were 256 breakthrough deaths between 2 January and 2 July 2021.”
It certainly possible during this last surge in the UK that vaccinated people were dropping like flies, but the abundance of evidence still suggests that the vaccinated are at much less risk of hospitalization, serious illness, and death than unvaccinated.
Steve o , check out the British study published in medical journal lancet this morning. Apparently house hold members who get covid transmit it to other household members regardless of vaccine status within 13% . 25% of vacinated members get it versus 38 % of unvaccinated.
It was a pretty solid looking study of over 600 households.
Apparently the peak viral load was the same but slower to peak and faster to reduce for vacinated people but they still transmitted to vaccinated and unvaccinated alike.
I would say that members must have isolated immediately after testing positive because 38% transmission is pretty low in a household. I wonder if members hadn’t isolated if everyone would have got ill? I would like to see more information on methodology. Also if only delta had been involved would have vaccinated transmission rates been higher? It stands to reason rates will equalize as more resistant variants come into play.
10/29/2021 – Ireland Hits Grim Milestone Despite Being 90% Vaxxed.
90% Vaxxed Ireland Now Has Highest Number of Hospitalized Covid-19 Patients Since March.
Ireland is the model nation in the European Union when it comes to the universal vaccination narrative. 90.11% of their population over the age of 12 has been jabbed at least once and 88.63% are “fully vaccinated.” Based on everything we’ve heard from Anthony Fauci et al, they should be on the verge of defeating Covid-19 and returning to semi-normal life.
Instead, they’re experiencing a huge spike in Covid-19 cases, including hospitals that have not been as packed with suffering coronavirus patients since March. This deflates the other narrative surrounding the vaccines, that those who have been jabbed can still contract the disease but are far less likely to be hospitalized.
Ireland now has the highest number of patients in hospital with Covid-19 since March, despite over 91% of the population over-12 being vaccinated – the highest jab rate in the EU.
The number of Covid-positive patients in Irish hospitals now stands at 513 – figures not seen since the end of the infamous third wave last winter. 101 of these are in ICU this week – an increase from the 74 seen last week.
CMO Dr. Tony Holohan said that he was “increasingly worried about the rising incidence of the disease nationwide.”
According to the Irish Times, Dr. Anne Moore, who is a vaccine specialist at UCC, said cases would increase until there was a “transmission-blocking vaccine,” as whatever protection from transmission the current vaccines offered had already begun to wane.
“I think we will eventually have to boost the rest of the population…because we are going to see a huge increase in the number of cases,” she said.
To date, over 91% of the Irish population over the age of 12 has been vaccinated, making Ireland the most vaccinated country in the entire EU.”
I’ve always found perspective to be a valuable and frequently fascinating tool. For example Ireland has about 90% vaccination rate in their population of roughly 5,000,000 on a land mass of about 27,000 square miles (185 people per square mile) and according to your post 513 people hospitalized for covid. Alaska has about 60% vaccination rate in our population of roughly 730,000 on a land mass of about 665,000 square miles (1.1 people per square mile) and according to the latest counts 232 people hospitalized for covid. On a land mass almost 25 times as massive with a population about 7 times smaller and vaccination rates lagging by 30%, we’ve managed to have more than half as many hospitalized covid patients as Ireland. Where Ireland has 1 person out of every 10,000 hospitalized, we have 1 person per every 3,000. Whooda thunk it?
According to the Health Protection Surveillance Centre in Ireland:
Between April 1st and October 23rd 2021:
• 480 persons (aged 15 + years) were reported to the Health Protection Surveillance Centre (HPSC) as admitted to ICU with confirmed COVID-19 infection.
• 320/480 (67%) cases reported as not having received a COVID-19 vaccine or were not registered as vaccinated on Ireland’s national COVID-19 ommunisation system (COVAX).
• 160/480 (33%) cases were reported as having received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine prior to admission to ICU.
• 117/480 (24%) cases were vaccine breakthrough infections
So once again the unvaccinated are not only making up a majority of the cases, but they are very much disproportionately doing so.
Steve-O, always love your input.. I apologize as I rush most of mine. Bit, I cannot put as much faith into Fauci, Collin’s, CDC, FDA, Biden, Walensky, etc.. as you seem to. They are just frauds, liars and pure evil to me.. Not to mention the extreme censorship of opposing views.
Steve o , land mass means next to nothing. Whats more important is that most alaskans are crammed into cities / villages and closed space especially fall winter and school time. This raises our risks . We also are an international hub for shipping and tourism with massive exposure compared to Ireland. This raises our risk massively = higher Hospitalization rates . ( our people moove about on cramped planes and boats . We have shocking little road milage= raised risk .) we have a major city .
Land mass does not factor in . If people don’t live in those open spaces it means nothing. Now re think your density ratio . Anchorage has 400k people in a very roughly 100 square miles? ( correct me and the facts there) how does that compare to ireland ? Im not familiar with their cities. ( the real important thing is where ireland is in its covid spike. Gotta compare apples to apples) when a person considers perspective they have to look through a clear lense otherwise it just muddies the perspective or discussion .
Fair enough, let’s take the extraneous information out and try again.
I’ve always found perspective to be a valuable and frequently fascinating tool. For example Ireland has about 90% vaccination rate in their population of roughly 5,000,000 and according to your post 513 people hospitalized for covid. Alaska has about 60% vaccination rate in our population of roughly 730,000 and according to the latest counts 232 people hospitalized for covid. With a population about 7 times smaller and vaccination rates lagging by 30%, we’ve managed to have more than half as many hospitalized covid patients as Ireland. Where Ireland has 1 person out of every 10,000 hospitalized, we have 1 person per every 3,000. Whooda thunk it?
Taking away the land mass information doesn’t really change much does it?
I don’t put much faith in Fauci, Collin’s, CDC, FDA, Biden, Walensky, etc. that’s why I look at the data, the numbers and other information. I enjoy digging into the data and information so I can learn about things, unfortunately so much of the information from those who think the covid vaccines don’t work is just wrong. I have a problem when people twist information or outright misrepresent information, I don’t have a problem sharing the information that contradicts that misinformation. I’m not sure how much sway Fauci, Collin’s, CDC, FDA, Biden, Walensky, etc. have over the Health Protection Surveillance Centre in Ireland or the Ministry of Health in Israel.
Thank you steve o, in my mind it changes it massively. On a percentage basis. Now we need to look at an infection graph For ireland. To determine where they are at in their varients / delta spike . Compare that to Alaskas graph and see if we are comparing apples to apples. When the spikes reach similar peaks we can determine very roughly how effective the vaccines are at 90% verses 60% .( assuming our population is of similar age snd a multitude of other factors) Theoretically ireland should still be very impressively low because theoretically the closer to 100% vacinated the more effective/ worth while it is to vaccinate at all with a “leak” vaccine. ( im not used to vaccines that allow infection on such a high percentage) What We really needed was a 100% vaccination rate to stop the spread in its tracks . We shouldn’t have rolled out the vaccine effort for general populace until everyone was confident in vaccines and they were studdied over time and prooven safe . Our politicians messed it up . They should have only been used on the extreme risk people and made to appear a privlage that everyone sought out. Requiring a mandate was even dumber because now people have something to rebel against regardless of safety or effectiveness of vaccines. Biden must be one stupid duck unless his intent was to fail and divide everyone.
That’s just it, there are too many variables to compare countries from all over the world, but if we are going to do it then we have to acknowledge that the data is changing on a daily basis. Sometimes it’s good sometimes it’s bad. We can compare as much as we want but if we are just going to then say we can’t compare anything because it’s not perfect then what’s the point in comparing anything at all?
So let’s take a look at the data for Alaska again.
The AK DHSS weekly summary states that there have been 18,581 vaccine breakthrough cases, 229 vaccinated hospitalizations, and 72 deaths from January 16–October 23, 2021. 365,445 Alaskans 12+ have been fully vaccinated during that time. That means 5% of those vaccinated caught covid, 0.06% of those vaccinated were hospitalized, and 0.02% of those vaccinated died from covid. Is that a “leaky” vaccine?
For what it’s worth the general trend in the timeline of daily case, hospitalization, and deaths from the beginning of this for Ireland are fairly similar to ours here in Alaska, the scaling is different obviously.
Steve o , are you saying ireland and alaska infection and death rates have been similar? Or what did you mean? As to your question is this a a leaky vaccine? Whatever that weird term is . More accurate term is not fully effective against varients . So yes this vaccine is not very effective against varients and is liable to get worse. Apparently the next varient in line is even more resilient against the vaccine and is said to have formulated itself to have a happy day amongst the vaccinated. ( we will see if that prooves correct or not)
To the basics. We have aprx 140 ,000 infections ( more or less depending on test accuracy and who reports what) I personally know several vaccinated people who had minor symptoms and didn’t report because they didn’t develop full blown covid . ( vaccine reduces severity usually) so basically the 140 k is a very inaccurate number.
So let’s say for inaccurate kicks we have had aprx 140 k confirmed infections ( with in accurate tests) .
So 18 k were confirmed breakthrough cases . Aprx 8-9% of “confirmed” cases were from vacinated. That’s pretty bad and pretty “leaky” thankfully the disease rarely kills . ( super high probability that the real number is way higher than that because the vaccine reduces severity and there is no law requiring reporting positive tests and huge incentive not to due to social ostracism and financial damages from work related time off – so covidians mostly just say toughen up buttercup and soldier on) thus we probably have no idea of true positive rate and rate of death per infection is probably hyper low . ( who goes and reports ? I have covid i have covid)
So anyway 9% is pretty bad and “leaky” for sure . Thank god this wasn’t small pox or Ebola.
1% or less would make more sense. ( its super hard to compare because we don’t know if all the vaccinated were exposed or reported)
You get the picture. Im not impressed.
No, I’m not saying the rates have been similar at all nor the scale of the trend, but the timeframe and general shape of the trend….the peaks and troughs match almost week to week. They had a much larger peak early on when we had our first peak, the cases number per XXX number of people has had a lot of variability which makes sense they’ve taken different measures than we have. Lot’s of places the overall trends don’t match up well, we don’t match with Florida as well as we do with Ireland for example.
How does the flu vaccine compare in “leakiness” to that 8-9%?
Steve o , i see what you meant. As to your question about flu vaccine- flu vaccine is significantly less effective. Which stands to reason as there are innumerable more varieties of the flu than covid 19 . Might we say hundreds? Maybe thousands. It’s usually just a guess when the flu vaccine as to whch varients will be most prominent. So its hard to compare flu and covid just yet. The flu vaccine is mostly pushed hard to the elderly or at risk population. The flu is endemic similar to where covid is headed. Pre lab assisted Corona is already endemic.
There are currently hundreds if not thousands of covid 19 variants, most aren’t of any greater concern than any of the others. A vaccine that has a let’s say 91-95% success rate is much better than one with a 10-90% success rate, no?
I think we need to look at the 8-9% number again because I don’t see how that number represents vaccine breakthroughs, it represents the overall number of vaccine breakthroughs compared to unvaccinated cases and nothing more. Let’s do an apples to apples comparison just to take the vax issue off the table for a minute and to add a moment of levity. Let’s say we have two piles of apples, one is a pile of Honeycrisp apples and the other is a pile of Gala apples. The pile of Honeycrisps has 114,064 apples in it and the pile of Galas has 365,445 in it. Due to a series of events 18,581 of the Galas end up in the pile of Honeycrisps, so now we have a pile of 132,645 apples mixed with Gala and Honeycrisps. If we want to know the percentage of Gala apples in the mixed pile we would simply divide the number of Galas by the amount in the mixed pile. However if we wanted to know the number of Galas that had, through a series of events, made their way into the mixed pile of apples we would need to divide the number of Galas in the mixed pile by how many were in the original pile of Galas. If 18,581 Galas out of the original pile ended up in the mixed pile that would be 5% of the original pile of Galas that had managed to find their way (breakthrough if you will) into the mixed pile of apples.
For the record, I don’t doubt that vaccinated people are spreading covid, whether they are asymptomatic or by having mild symptoms and continuing life as if they are not sick. Just like the unvaccinated have done when they are asymptomatic or by having mild symptoms and continuing life as if they are not sick. I know people who had covid and certainly spread it to others by denying they were sick, I know people who think because they had covid once they are completely 100% immune even though there is nothing at all to support that incorrect idea. I know people who think the vaccine should protect everyone to 100% immunity even though there is nothing at all to support that incorrect idea.
Steve o , it represents unvaccinated versus vacinated. On the basis of very very roughly 15%aprx similar exposure ratios .( an unknown) The problem is vacinated people are less likely to report because they usually get a mild form of the disease that usually dissipates quickly therefore their infection rates are probably way higher than is officially known . The 18k is most likely an extreme undercount. Thats why i said inaccurate. Or its possible over count because tests are in accurate. The likelihood of that is relatively minimal compared to likelihood of significant undercount. So it’s highly probable that 8-9% is an extreme understatement but it is the minimum. The reason its an understatement is because we don’t know how many of the 3-400k vacinated have been fully exposed. When we judge by the most accurate analysis we have which was the recent lancet article saying 25% versus 35% infection rates it indicates an aprx 70% vaccine failure. Typically a base line of full household exposure would create a near 100% infection rate among members. So apparently the study group isolated the infected individuals immediately reducing proceeding infections.most likely both groups would have been fully infected if left to live in respective family groups. What the lancet study says is aprx 10% more people got infected in unvaccinated due to quicker and longer peak viral loads . Assuming accuracy a 10% greater infection rate is aprx 20-30% protection rate in household members if you are vaccinated. Or a an aprx 70+ % failure rate for the vacinated. Thats pretty bad vaccine protection for a virus that just came out . ( recent mutation from original virus) that is worse protection than flu virus significantly if my memory serves.
So we can go with 8-9% failure rate as minimal or we can go with a 70+ % failure rate which is probably most accurate. Pretty unacceptable any way you look at it .
I meant + or – similar exposure ratios within 15% . Im not guessing the actual exposure ratios. Im thinking the 350 k unvaccinated and 400 k vacinated have been exposed similar within 15% . The odd thing is the unvaccinated will eventually reach heard immunity and near perfect virus resistance for a long time. The vaccinated people will have immunity for a few months and then if the get exposed again will become infected without constant booster shots. Raising the rates of infected among the vaccinated to potentially that 70% or greater household rate . Eventually making an infection picture that mimics the 25/35 ratio or possibly greater given time .
If it was a disease like small pox we wouldn’t be having this discussion because a higher death rate changes everything.
Im not sure where you got the 10o s or 1000s of covid 19 mutations? Covid 19 is significant different than the older corona virus . I think less than a hundred mutations or what i read was about 8 of any current importance. Wheras flu is much larger grouping unless you want to subset it . Covid 19 is a subset of corona.
Flu currently is not very lethal. Spanish flu ( subset was)
If 9- to 70% small pox / rabies/ infected died regardless of vacination status I would consider that unacceptable failure wouldn’t you ?
Now if it was flu where less than .00125 die on breakthroughs of the infected then a faulty vaccine 50% (depending on date source )is relatively acceptable. And it’s questionable for the healthy to take vaccine in first place.
Its not acceptable for a disease that 50_90% die. Correctly developed and administered vaccines should give a high immunity.
Is covid dangerous enough to expect better vaccine success. Matter of opinion I guess. Mine is that a 8 to 70% failure rate is unacceptable. Especially if evidence says the vacinated accidentally are assisting exposure.
Here’s a good source for the documented covid-19 variants https://cov-lineages.org/lineage_list.html I’m not sure how many are in that list but thousands. I’m guessing there are a lot, lot more that haven’t been found and just disappeared and no doubt there will be many many more to come. The good news is most variants aren’t more dangerous, but if one out of a thousand is, well…that wouldn’t be good.
Thank you . Im sure it will be interesting informative read .
Steve o ,
I think You have confused varients/ strains with lineages. ( there are only roughly 10 cov2 strains/ varients. )
There may be hundreds or thousands of lineages. Lineages represent mutations that may or may effect innert pathogenic ability. Most linages have no functional consequences for the virus. The ones that do develop into whats called a different varient or strain . ( those two words may also have slightly different meanings but usually it’s acceptable to use similar)
A linage becomes a different strain when it’s mutation/lineage changes in such a way as to avoid the immune system on a previously infected individual or previously vaccinated individual. ( gets naturally selected and becomes a dominant strain: varient .) thats why vacinated people who carry the disease without knowing or have minimal symptoms then can spread a varient that avoids the vaccine protection ( self sslects and is ultra dangerous and promotes a virus the previously infected immune systems cant detect and we end up with massive spikes) substandard vaccines drive the prevalence of disease. ( the vacinated become unknowing carriers and super spreaders because they have a mild resistance to the disease ( dont get bad enough for hospital) wheras unvaccinated usually think – wow im sick better stay home or damn im going to die better get to hospital. ( the vacinated just go about their day spreading the disease and helping the virus select editions of itself that can co habit with the vaccinated and still exist)
Please examine the definition of linages versus strains varients . You sent me a link to listings of linages.
Flu virus is known to change itself enough to evade immune defence / vacine defense and create new strains varients constantly.
Thus new flu vacines needed every year . Not yet know if cov2 will also be this adaptive but I suspect it will be similar but at as of yet only 10 varients . Not thousands. God if that was the case it would be so frickin scary.
Id get vaccinated every day 😃( ive already had two different varients of cov2- alpha and delta , and if there were thousands more to go it would be a nightmare)
No, a variant is any change to the genetic makeup of the virus. For example the “Delta” variant is sequenced B.1.617.2 while the “Alpha” variant is sequenced B.1.1.7. The sequencing shows the lineage for ease of tracking where each variant descended from, for example the “Delta” variant B.1.617.2 is the variant of variant B.1.617. which in turn is the variant of variant B.1, which in turn is a variant of variant of B, which was a variant of A. If you click on the variant number on that site it will take you to more information about it and show you which variant it came from so you can follow the lineage. The 10 or so variants you are talking about are either variants of concern (VOC), variants of interest (VOI), or variants being monitored (VBM) these represent the small number of variants, or any of the descendant variants in their lineage, that pose a greater danger than the others variants out there.
Steve o ,
It’s confusing so I don’t blame you for being confused. Take some time and sit back on it . The way you understand it makes sense but it isn’t the way the classification works.
Per cdc – linage is closely related viruses in this case that cause covid 19 .
Varient is a viral genome / genetic code that may contain one or more mutations . ( explains it right there)
In some cases a group of varients with similar genetic changes such as a linage or group of linages may be designated by public health organizations as a varient of concern .
Thats all near verbatim. I don’t blame you for misunderstanding but what it means is varients come first and then mutations create linages sort of like a family line .
How to explain for you? . Varient alpha has baby alpha that has mutations. Thats the linage . The first in line is granddaddy Varient, but baby mutations are not called new variants . They are called linage of alpha mutations .
There are currently only aprx ten families of variants but innumerable mutations in the varient linage.
Now for some reason the last part is more confusing as to why they can lump a group of linages as a varient of concern ect . But thats the way it works.
So unless things have changed since studying there are 10 varients aprx and lots of mutations in a linage. As far as I understand mutations don’t really matter unless they become a dominant dangerous strain and then I think is when they are potentially labeled a varient of their own if they meet certain criteria.
So hope That clears it up for you . Innumerable mutations. Limited varients.
Please discuss it with a specialist epidemiologist that’s better at details than i . What’s important to note is not all mutations make any difference towards viral ability yet they all get there little number letter code but that doesn’t make them a new varient. They are just a mutation in the linage.
We are really getting into the weeds here, but I’m not confused about it. It’s a pretty simple concept really. The reason you say it’s confusing and that your explanation is confusing is because it’s incorrect. It’s like a family tree with many limbs, each variant is a new branch in a tree, some die off while others become bigger and bigger branches. If you look at the naming convention using an alphabetical prefix and a numerical suffix, each dot in the numerical suffix means “descendent of” and is a new variant in the lineage. Both “Alpha” and “Delta” are variants of the B.1 lineage. The “Alpha” variant is a descendant of the 1st variant of B.1 and the 7th variant of the B.1.1 branch, hence the naming convention B.1.1.7. The “Delta” variant is a descendant of the 617th variant of B.1 and the 2nd variant of the B.1.617 branch, hence the naming convention B.1.617.2. The reason “Alpha” and “Delta” have different names is because they represent different variants that posed greater danger than other B.1 descendants. If a descendant variant of the “Delta” variant B.1.617.2, say AY.43 had developed into a more dangerous variant then it would be assigned a letter from the Greek alphabet which would then become it’s “name” the way “Alpha” and “Delta” have been named but it would still retain the AY.43 assigned nomenclature.
Steve o , look up varients versus mutations. Read multiple articles to help yourself.
You misunderstand the terminology. To understand the difference between the two you have to understand genetics
From dna or rna standpoint there are small mistakes which manifest as mutations during copies.
These are not technically individual varients . They become a varient after multiple mutations manifest as a significant change in the species or effectiveness towards viral action. Where it attaches /how / infection ratings ect . Then it becomes a new varient. Then it may become a dominant strain . Or not .
A varient will or may contain many mutations before it becomes a varient.
Varients currently are named by the alphabet. There are not hundreds or thousands.
The hundreds or thousands or more is the mutations.
Not varients .
Varients are so named after enough or significant mutations occur that cause a recognizable varient to emerge that has distinct characteristics. A changed viral action.
Read that a couple times.
Its the same with other species. Dna mutates but does not automatically become what’s labeled as a varient. There must be recognizable separate characteristics before it’s labeled a varient. That could be 1 mutation or thousands before this change manifests itself.
When you stated that a varient is any change to the genetic makeup of a virus you were distinctly incorrect. (Understandably so .)
How you should have stated it is -Any change to the genetic makeup of a virus is actually called a mutation. Per gene science terminology.
A group of mutations in genetic makeup of a virus is called a varient when it manifests as significantly different viral action in some fashion.
This is why we have a limited number of varients.
Some people say there are 8 varients ive also heard as much as 45 . Im not the expert on that . Science can determine that . The fact remains. Covid 19 does not have hundreds or thousands of varients . ( yes they varried through mutation but that didn’t mean their changes were enough to get the label “variant”)
Often the reason they get a label varient is because there ability to be pased on has changed or some other significant action is recognized. After multiple mutations.
You are looking at the math document system and mistaking each number point change as a new varient. I believe. Thats not how the labeling system works. Those are documented changes but not what’s labeled as a varient. ( though in English understanding – they varied)
I have other stuff to add but thats it for today 😃
Steve o ,
I just looked at how Wikipedia determines varient. Theirs is in line with your understanding. They are classifying each genetic change as a varient.
For whatever reason that is not in line with how I understand genetic terminology.
Wikipedians are not technically experts in the feild of genetics . Anyone can edit Wikipedia if they want to step through hoops so its not technically an authoritative
Definition or site of information.
It’s better to go to the books and refer to experts of the field. Thats where my information is derived. Base level genetic study .
Am I right? Well there is a possibility methods have been redefined but all evidence from authoritative sources indicate i am correct. I will leave the door open though. I think Wikipedia sheds an inaccurate light in this case .
My opinion is to research base genetic terminology for the accurate analysis / answer.
I found a few places that will help you understand the difference.
From evolution- berkley edu
Mutation is a change in a DNA sequence occurring because of errors in replication or repair.
Mutation is an alteration in the nucleotide sequence of an organism.
Now Wikipedia has refrence to micro biology or virology.
In micro biology or virology the term varient is used to describe a subtype of a micro organism that is generally distinct or distant from the main strain. ( I couldn’t remember whether is said distinct or distant but the meaning is similar so doesn’t really matter, distinct is how it’s normally defined) as in subtype beginning of a permanent change . Not minute changes which are considered mutations. ( alterations in genetic sequence)
So i am correct. By terminology there is not thousands of technical varients .
There are certain sources that add to confusion but on a base level they are incorrect.
I still believe you have confused the mathematical points as individual variants when in fact per biology they are just considered mutations.
Now to add confusion they take those minimal variants 8-45 and classify each one as emerging varient, varient of concern ect .
Im not saying there are only 8 or 45 but i am saying science does not recognize hundreds or thousands.
More than the 8 or 45 may be recognized at any time or different scientists may differentiate a little and have different opinions on where the line on varient should be drawn but science doesn’t currently recognize hundreds or thousands except when the authors misunderstand the true or historical definition of varient.
Steve o ,
I just want to say that i am probably mistaken on the numbering sequence you presented not being variants and that Wikipedia method says you are correct but that doesn’t fit with my understanding of base biology and and virology or its related historical definitions . (so I understand why you say there are thousands and that is a possible apparent method in use) how they square that with historical methods I don’t know. Maybe they have changed the nomenclature.
Medline said something that indicated such. ( the whole varient of concern method)
Steve o ,
It appears there may have been some changes to nomenclature. But I think i am still correct. I sent an e mail to los Alamos for a hopeful definitive determination. They have a couple people who answer e mail questions regarding cov2
Changes in development ( nature micro biology) ( a dynamic nomenclature proposal for sars cov2 to assist genomic epidimology)
Look up D614G under ncbi.nlm.nih.gov good discussion of comparison of cov2 and influenza varients and mutations. Influenza is more rapid.
Also talks about how one mutation can create a varient and how it all works. Not a description method of nomenclature but a definitive line of action regarding d614g
The link you sent me was technically just lineages.
The CDC site says: “A lineage is a genetically closely related group of virus variants derived from a common ancestor. A variant has one or more mutations that differentiate it from other variants of the SARS-CoV-2 viruses.”
It goes on to further define some key words.
Mutation: A mutation refers to a single change in a virus’s genome (genetic code). Mutations happen very frequently, but only sometimes change the characteristics of the virus.
Lineage: A lineage is a group of closely related viruses with a common ancestor. SARS-CoV-2 has many lineages; all cause COVID-19.
Variant: A variant is a viral genome (genetic code) that may contain one or more mutations. In some cases, a group of variants with similar genetic changes, such as a lineage or group of lineages, may be designated by public health organizations as a Variant of Concern or a Variant of Interest due to shared attributes and characteristics that may require public health action.
And you’re correct, the link I sent is technically a list of lineages…the lineages of variants.
I just saw where you said you have had covid twice, yikes. I understand the hesitancy towards the mRNA vaccines, that’s one of the reasons I went with the J&J. If you’ve already had covid twice you might should be concerned about your immune system functioning properly and think about adding a vaccine to help boost it a bit. Viral vector vaccines aren’t brand new virus technology, they have a proven track record. Might be worth talking to your doctor…especially with all the variants out there!
Steve o ,
I think i get what you mean . Lineage represent a grouping of similar viruses that you are calling variants (cdc wants us to only recognize variants of interest as “variants” to reduce confusion)until a virus gets enhancing mutations its in a linage of a varient. (increased infectivity or other enhancing attributes). (mutations give the virus enhancement to get a chance at being recognized as its own variant)
Now in common nomenclature those “variants” or really mutant viruses in a linage are not recognized or given a name until they become dominant then they become a varient of concern or commonly known as a “ variant”
Alpha beta delta ect.
I still think you are using a slightly different set of nomenclature from the typical. ( though I certainly see why you would call a family grouping/ lineage of viruses that have small changes variants.) the best i saw it described was in a family line ( lineage)if there were similar characteristics only the first one is called a varient the rest are similar viruses in a group/ family/ lineage. When there is significant mutations that cause operational differences they become a “variant” alpha beta what have you . Some people still call those small changes that constitute a lineage individual variants but thats not how science currently defines . ( those people that do ,are slightly off) but that does make it reasonable to proclaim their are hundreds of variants despite the fact they are really just small changes/ mutations in a linage . Now im still leaving the door open and when los Alamos answers me back i will update you best i can but it might be awhile.
Also thanks for your concern about my immune system.
I don’t believe it’s compromised as all my family and friends also had it twice. Crazily some were vacinated in between!!
Which is reasonable because “true variants” have operational differences that allow them to bypass the immune system or the vaccines . Thats how they got labeled varient. Not mutations( variations not variant) in a linage.
Still its crazy . Get alpha , A year later get the vaccine and boosters and then 3 months later get delta . My poor friend and his family of vaccinated – male and female alike. Interestingly they were heavy maskers but decided they were safe from viruse due to vaccines and could travel- bam ! Caught the latest true varient/ varient of concern. Whats odd, was watching Freinds even young healthy ones get the vaccine then catching covid and bringing it home for all their families and work associates to get . I saw that in several groups.
The strangest ,though expected was the group of Freinds who caught the first round of alpha covid 2019 then got the series of vaccines then months later caught delta covid.
So no my immune system is fairly normal. Family members despite age and vacine status had the same experience. Interestingly the ones who had vaccines were the ones needing medical intervention. Monoclonal antibodys and ivermectin ect ect. They recognized their illness quickly and used ivermectin ect ( if you use ivermectin in later stages there is no benefit) only when the virus first enters body . ( yes I know it means little that the vacinated needed intervention as its a small group) still interesting though.
I still say your nomenclature is substantially incorrect. You cant call a similar lineage family of viruses each individual variants until they have enough mutations for operational differences to become a varient (though they are technically all varied from each other a small genomic amount which is mutations.)
It really doesn’t matter though because i now understand you . But its best to use common nomenclature for quicker on the same page communication.
We have only 8 “variants” and a huge number of variations or mutations. Interestingly Some linages share similar mutations😉
What will Los Alamos say 😃
I’m not sure who these Los Alamos folks you have in your hip pocket are, but I look forward to what they have to say.
I found this article from April, it explains it all pretty well…definitely better than I can.
“We know the coronavirus currently has 12,700 identified mutations, 12 main types of the virus (identified as 19 A, the original type, through 20 J), five strains and almost 4000 variants.”
“It all starts in the coronavirus RNA genome, which is composed of 30,000 nucleotides, the basic structural unit of nucleic acids. The best way to think about it is as an alphabet of 30,000 letters that spell the sequences for 29 genes. The virus itself is a coil of genetic material in a protein shell with an outer envelope most of the time. The virus binds to a human target cell receptor, injects its genetic material, and takes over the cell, turning into a virus replicating factory. As it replicates, mutations can take place and either help or compromise the virus. Many of the identified mutations are inconsequential as these do not change the biology of the virus. Mutations are passed down through lineage, best described as a branch in the family tree. A group of coronaviruses that have the same inherited set of very distinctive mutations is called a variant. The lineage becomes known as a strain, and in this specific example, COVID-19 is caused by a coronavirus strain known as SARS-CoV-2.”
There really aren’t many who have had covid more than twice, but there are studies that says those who have had it are 5 times more likely to get it again than if you are vaccinated…it’s all a guessing game, even for those who try and immerse themselves in gaining as much knowledge about the subject as possible.
All the conspiracy theories are a bit much for me. Most people are tenuously hanging on to what little sanity is left in life, add in a global pandemic and it’s not hard to see why crazy talk is now what watercooler talk was two years ago.
Steve o , you can find articles 10-1 that say there is aprx 8 variants. The guy who wrote the article you linked to doesn’t know how variants are determined. He said they become a varient when a group viruses share mutations. ( or something similar. You can post it verbatim for better accuracy) at best thats an incomplete explanation his opinion is not the common method of determining variants. At worst it’s just wrong. The common method is when a mutation enhances or significantly changes the ability of a virus it becomes a varient. Regardless of grouping and regardless of number of mutations. Though it’s often many . Its all about the viruses change in abilities and its change in genetic structure both are needed to be called “variant”
Your author is out in left field by himself. ( or with a couple others) ( doesn’t mean hes wrong but he is not using the accepted definition/ nomenclature ect.)
As to your derision towards Los Alamos – its missed placed . Some very serious scientific minded people work there. ( cant promise they will reply but if they do it will be more informed than a random doctor)
As to your talk of water coolers and conspiracy theories? Whats that about? Are trying to muddy the waters or maliign me or was it truly just a mention of American culture?
There was no conspiracy whatsoever in what i posted . So i have no idea what you speak of . We should wait and see if a truly authoritative answer can be found before being to sure of ourselves. Maybe someone with up to date knowledge can chime in .
Steve o ,
Nancy at Los Alamos national laboratory is who i contacted. Wait and see I guess . ( your back pocket statement was silly) though maybe I should ask one of my brothers with a doctorate that taught science and math in Australia and China. They are up to date on biology and covid
Who do you think would be the most authoritative up to date source? Im just not 100% pleased with what either of us has presented so far .
I fear you’ve become far too entangled in the “who’s right” to have an actual conversation at this point. It has been a good conversation along the way from time to time… This guy in the latest article I linked isn’t my author, he’s a doctor who wrote an article that explains how all this works, his article happens to disagree with your understanding of the issue. It also explains how variants and lineages work, even if you disagree. The CDC link also explains it, even if you disagree. I could post many, many more links that you might disagree with.
I’ve heard of Los Alamos National Laboratory, but I have no idea what Los Alamos you are talking about when you say you’ve sent Los Alamos a message and you are waiting to hear back from them. Are you talking about Los Alamos National Laboratory, or something else? You haven’t been clear so I don’t know. But I do look forward to what they have to say because I have a strong feeling they will support what I’ve been saying. Either way, If I’m wrong or if I’m right I’ve learned something. If I’m wrong I will learn what I was wrong about and what I was wrong about, if I was right I will learn that the research I did led me in the correct direction.
The eight variants you keep referring to are the eight variants that are variants of concern, interest, or variants being monitored…there are many, many more out there. I’ve provided you with the information regarding variants of concern (VOC), variants of interest (VOI), and variants being monitored (VBM)…these variants didn’t come out of nowhere to pop on the scene, they came from the large pool of variants just waiting to turn into variants of concern (VOC), variants of interest (VOI), or variants being monitored (VBM).
Just because you can find articles 10-1 saying anything does not mean they are correct, but if that’s the world we live in…
Oh shit, Nancy at LANL? Why didn’t you say so earlier? We definitely shouldn’t ask your brother who taught in China, he’s suspect just from having ever stepped foot there…I bet he has a bioengineered covid strain just waiting to time release. The one who taught in Australia, well they’ve been under lockdown so he probably has cabin fever…and I’ve been to Australia, so you know you can’t trust me. Seems like we are at an impasse…
I don’t have the joking font, so just know I’m joking around.
Steve o ,
The brother returned from China is definitely suspect.
I keep a close eye on him. He hung out in a bat cave . (you might think so if you saw him)😉 he’s certainly a mutation but i call him a varient!
Steve o ,
It’s looking more possible you are partially right. The netherlands uses your method. They had a table with what they described 56,000 variants. I think the alpha or another strain had 26,000aprx and one other had 26,000 aprx. They were basically calling all findable mutations in a strain varients .
Delta might’ve been a varient with 26,000 variants in its strain according to them .
I saw an article from Kentucky that uses similar terminology. This is not the final authoritative determination but certain countries use your method.
Each of these variants does not fit the biology definition of varient though. As the biology definition says permanent change that creates a significant difference in the organism that effects its abilities or attributes. Nor the cdc definition.
Illinois reporting 77.7% of its Covid deaths last week were vaccinated.
117 total Covid deaths last week: https://dph.illinois.gov/covid19.html
91 of them vaccinated if you look at the increase in cumulative weekly breakthroughs here: https://dph.illinois.gov/covid19/vaccine/vaccine-breakthrough.html
In Depth Article: MODERNA GETS ITS MIRACLE
Ah yes, follow the Ben Franklins… oh, and Antibody-Dependent Enhancent…
“The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said in updated COVID-19 guidelines this week that some immunocompromised people may need a FOURTH dose of the vaccine. ”
Oh, I dunno….but I guess we couldn’t have vax Emergency Use Authorization then could we? “Horse dewormer” they say…hmmm
My bad. 78% of severe break through hospitalizations was in Austraiia..
“95% of the severe patients are vaccinated”.
“85-90% of the hospitalizations are in Fully vaccinated people.”
“We are opening more and more COVID wards.”
“The effectiveness of the vaccine is waning/fading out”
(Dr. Kobi Haviv, earlier today on Chanel 13 newsisrael13 )
— Ran Israeli August 5, 2021
Dr. Kobi Haviv, Director of Jerusalem Hospital
‘Vaccinated account for 95% of severe Covid hospitalizations. Vaccine effectiveness is fading.’
Steve-O, I apologize..I sometimes confuse my % with different countries.. 78% hospitalization breakthrough infections of the vaccinated was out of Austrailia. As for Isreal, well…
“95% of the severe patients are vaccinated”.
“85-90% of the hospitalizations are in Fully vaccinated people.”
“We are opening more and more COVID wards.”
“The effectiveness of the vaccine is waning/fading out”
(Dr. Kobi Haviv, earlier today on Chanel 13 @newsisrael13 ) pic.twitter.com/SpLZewiRpQ
— Ran Israeli (@RanIsraeli) August 5, 2021
Dr. Kobi Haviv, Director of Jerusalem Hospital
‘Vaccinated account for 95% of severe Covid hospitalizations. Vaccine effectiveness is fading.’
Craig-A good summation. I just would note that any case of covid-19 creates a potential factory for mutations and the eventual evolvite of a variant that increases the chance for hospitalization for those under 50. Hence, vaccination and boosters are recommended for all for both individual and societal health.
Unfortunately the Covid “vaccine” does not stop transmission or give immunity. In fact the CDC changed its definition of a “vaccine” to describe what the Covid jab does.
The Covid jab does reduce the risk of hospitalization and death from Covid 19 variants currently in high circulation in the population.
Long term studies are not completed.
The vaccine does reduce the chance you will get covid.
But its efficiency decreases with time hence the move
of Israel to give everyone booster shots.
So am not sure what you are refering to?
The Covid “Vax” doesn’t prevent you from getting nor spreading the virus. This allows for mutations/variants.. Thus, the “vaccinated” are unknowingly the variant super spreaders” and NOT the unvaccinated.
Anybody want to talk about Antibody-Dependent Enhancent? Just ask the Isrealis when they are on their 4th booster.
There is a big difference between the current Covid-19 vaccines do not prevent infection to the reality which is the available Covid-19 vaccines reduces your susceptibility to infection. We can debate on the efficacy of the various Covid-19 on reducing infection and we can debate about when one should get a booster. But just making stuff up like- the current Covid-19 vaccines does not prevent you from getting Covid-19 is a non-starter.
And frankly I don’t see the point: Covid-19 vaccines work. No one is fooling the Israel government nor the biomedical industry of Israel. For some historical perspective…keep in mind
Israel is buying there Covid-19 vaccines that were designed in what country?
Jeff, for what it is worth. If the “vaccines” are what you say they are then there should be no need for goverent misinformation and censorship.
Story at a glance:
“High COVID vaccination rates create pressure on the virus to mutate into variants with higher levels of contagion and pathogenicity. Recent research concluded that those who are fully “vaccinated” against COVID-19 are indeed more susceptible to COVID variant infections than unvaccinated people.
The narrow protection you get from the COVID shot will inevitably necessitate a booster shot for each emerging new variant that is resistant to the shots.
U.K. data show the COVID death toll is higher among the fully vaccinated compared to the unvaccinated. Between February 1, 2021, and September 12, 2021, 63.5% of those who died from COVID-19 within 28 days of a positive test were fully vaccinated.
Infection-enhancing anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies now recognize both the original Wuhan/D614G strain and Delta variants, which suggests antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) is emerging.
Israeli research shows antibody levels rapidly decrease after the second dose of Pfizer’s COVID shot. IgG antibodies — which are part of your humoral immune response — decreased at a consistent rate over time, whereas the neutralizing antibodies rapidly decreased during the first three months, and then slowed down thereafter.”
I agree. What a mess . Its prooven that the vacinated are spreading the disease because they are less careful/ think they cant get infected and when they do they don’t realize its covid. Now its shown they have become a disease reservoir because the vaccine is faulty and allows infection which basically teaches the disease how to survive versus putting up a strong natural immunity wall .
The vaccinated are a disease resivour group similar to how bats and artic foxes harbor rabies because they can live with rabies. Transferring the infection and killing other resident species. Keeping the disease alive through eternity. The stats show disease infection rates go up in highly vaccinated groups of people.
The vaccine should not have been used for healthy people. That was absolutely retarded. It should have been used for the over 50 year old group or at risk people for emergency use only . ( it was authorized for emergency use and thats how it should have been used) !!
Our foolish leaders have created a disaster.
Gain of function created a pandemic. Faulty vaccine and faulty application prolonged the pandemic and is promoting varients and messing with people’s immune systems. Then to top it off it’s messing with culture snd our livelihoods . Dividing people. What a bunch of incompetent self serving idiots.
If you don’t want infected then stay away from sick people and now stay away from the carriers ie the vaccinated. What a mess .
Isolation and distance when ill is the answer. Upgrade our ventilation systems to destroy viruses . Until better vaccines are made they should only be used for at risk people. Corona virus has always mutated to fast to expect these vaccines to do their job in full.
# imprison fauci # investigate nih and eco health #prosecute
Much of what you just have quoted is clear non-sense. For instance this statement.
“U.K. data show the COVID death toll is higher among the fully vaccinated compared to the unvaccinated. Between February 1, 2021, and September 12, 2021, 63.5% of those who died from COVID-19 within 28 days of a positive test were fully vaccinated.”
But I see you now admit the available covid-19 vaccines are effective at stopping infection based on real data. So I guess that is progress. And yes boosters will be needed, as they are for many vaccines. Folks get the Flu vaccine every year for a reason, but that does not mean it is not an effective public health measure.
Look at Israel, look at how they used Mossad to secure medical equipment and supplies for mass vaccinations. Look how cases dropped, then rose with decreasing efficiency of the available Covid-19 vaccines, and how cases are dropping again as they inoculate with boosters.
Clearly the available Covid-19 vaccines are an effective preventive measure.
DPR, you are correct, liars innthe Democrat Party saying this is “a.pandemic of the unvaccinated or the vaccinated have to fear the unvaccinated” when it is clearly the other way around. How there is not millions with pitchforks in the streets around every state capital is beyond me.
Jeff, God Bless ya… 80% are vaccinated in Isreal..78% of hospitalizations are vaccinated. Why on earth does a healthy 10yo, 20yo. 30yo, etc.. need the vaccine, let alone a booster every year? If you are 20 yo and 30lbs+ overweight then by all means. Said it a million times this virus was created to take out the obese as well. There is absolutely no reason the majority of the masses need the vax.. Total cash cow scam.
I don’t know where any of you get your misinformation, but you should probably stop getting it there.
Read some newspapers from Israel, read some medical reports and studies from Israel. It’s clear that we have a media issue in this country when people have no idea how to do those simple things.
“Positive COVID-19 test results at lowest rate in 4 months” – The Times of Israel
“Unvaxxed 10% of Israelis Are 73% of Serious Cases, 65% of Deaths” – Haaertz
“Most hospitalized COVID-19 carriers weren’t vaccinated” – Arutz Sheva Israelnationalnews.com says
“The Ministry of Health on Monday evening published data showing a further decrease in the number of patients hospitalized in serious condition after contracting COVID-19, a number which currently stands at 258.
Among those patients, 144 are on ventilators. Nearly 80% of the patients were not vaccinated against the coronavirus at all which according to officials in the ministry indicates the effectiveness of the vaccine in general and the effectiveness of the booster dose in particular.
According to the data, about 90% of the patients in serious condition who are less than 60 years old have not been vaccinated and this is a little less than half of all patients in this condition.
In the last day, only 579 new cases have been diagnosed in Israel. During this time, two patients died, bringing the number of deaths since the start of the pandemic to 8,055.”
Here in Alaska we had 749 cases along with 11 deaths reported yesterday and our population is less than 10% of Israel. Our vaccination rate is much lower than Israel’s.
Does the Covid 19 jab stop transmission?
According to a study of health care workers in Vietnam in a pre print study in The Lancet Posted Oct 11 2021 titled “transmission of SARS CoV-2 Delta Variant Among Vaccinated Healthcare Workers, Vietnam” authors Nguyen Vinh Chau and Nghiem My Ngoc found
“There was no correlation between vaccine-induced neutralizing antibody levels and viral loads or the development of symptoms” They say “Physical distancing measures remain critical to reduce SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant Transmission”
A study out of Israel from Savin Gazit and others showed a 13 fold increased risk of break through infections for the “vaccinated” versus those previously infected. All vaccines that have stopped diseases transmission have very similar performance between natural immunity and vaccine acquired immunity.
I want Covid gone. I do not think vaccines are the ultimate answer.
Proteases inhibitors maybe.
Kevin, nicely presented.
Not sure why you put other people down about where they get their news.
As far as i can tell your support of covid vaccines is marginal at best .
You propose Vaccines are winning and any one in disagreement is wrong or has bad information.
Israel is a highly vaccinated country. Almost 8o%
Israel currently has high infection rates compared to itself. About 800 per day 1200 last month 7 day average. Did you know highly vaccinated Israel had the highest infection rates / spike over last 40 days of the pandemic? For them ? Last higest was jan 2021 at 950 . So Israel is more vaccinated now and has higher infection rates . Go figure. Per john hopkins .
Alaska has aprx 60% vacinated rate . We also are more vaccinated now and experiencing our largest spikes. Huh . Not working as far as i can tell .
What’s interesting is our case fatality rate is almost the ssme as is Israel despite Israels better hospitals. Aprx
1/2 a percent.
Israel 8,000 dead at aprx 1100 per milion . Alaska about 650 dead aprx 1200 per million. Within 9% projected . A non important variation because multiple variables at play . Israel 1,325,000 cases or aprx 147,000 per milion
Alaska has aprx 168000 cases per milion. Not that much different. Oddly our case fatality rate is slightly lower despite less vacination and a 10+ percentage higher infection rate . Our medical is inferior to Israel yet our survival is higher. Go figure. Our vacinated rate is lower yet our survival is higher. Go figure. Its all within about 10% Roughly so its not really a big deal. Whats a big deal is our infection rates and Israel’s are as high as ever even compared to original covid dpike 2019-2020 despite vaccinations and its quite clear the vacines have not solved the problem in full . Oddly the vacines havent stopped the infection growth/ spikes. As its worse than ever despite high vacination rates . Btw Israel considers someone unvaccinated if thry haven’t had a booster in 6 months so that means many of the infected and hospitalized they claim weren’t vacinated actually had at least one dose .
Steve o , you have little standing to despise others information sources.
Steve o, btw – Reuters, npr , and times of Israel all say 50% to 60% of hospitalized severe covid patients are vaccinated with 1-2 doses . Timez of Israel said phyzer . So maybe the vacines offer some protection if given regularly but apparently they dont come close to stopping the disease transmission or the deadly cases.
Maybe you dont trust Reuters, npr or Israelis newspapers .
Ive seen the same or worse evidence in each original study ive read also. I prefer to read the studies without the spin .
Your attack on others information sources is unfounded.
Our problem in America is fake experts and politicians pushing a marginal solution. That fools people into thinking they are protected. Staying away from people is better. Many Scandinavian countrys are banning moderna shot for young or under 30 due to health risks.
Steve o , in August the jewrulseum post said 250 severe patients hospitalized with covid. Aprx 156 were fully vaccinated. I think seven partially . So over 2/3 hospitalized were fully vaccinated. Your heartz article was confusing the stats . They were focusing only on the covid patients about to die or did die of covid. The ratio of dying skews towards unvaccinated. The ratio of hospitalized skews towards the vaccinated. The vaccine reduces risk of death significantly apparently but doesn’t reduce risk of bad infection by much . The problem is the vaccinated become unsuspecting carriers putting the unvaccinated at extreme risk of death. ie the vacinated raise risk of killing the unvaccinated but not much the other way around because vacines provide some protection against odds of worst case infection. Yes tge unvaccinated are some risk to themselves also
Two bits of info for your consideration:
One of the ways the jab limits the spread is by simply cutting down the amount of virus making the rounds. The more vaxxed people, the less virus. And the less virus you have, the fewer variants you end up with. Yeah, I hate it too,
Other thing is that sometime this week, India withdrew its approval for the use of both Ivermectin and HCQ for treatment of COVID. Don’t know as yet why that approval was withdrawn. It could be under political pressure. it could be because the stuff doesn’t work. And I don’t particularly like this one either. Need more info as to why. Cheers –
Good on ya for posting information that, while you might not like, is factual. If only more people were willing to actually try and understand the issue and let the data inform them we would be much better off. Instead we have people repeating blatantly false information simply because it supports their chosen talking points.
You might want to read those articles again now that you’ve got some rest.
Steve o , – yep numbers still say the same . Its 50/50 vacinated and unvaccinated in Israel’s hospitals. Yep its still nearly identical rates in Alaska and Israel despite Israel’s 30% higher vacinated rate and their better health care . Huh .
Yep you are still listening to talking media and government heads instead of analyzing data.
Why don’t you actually try to understand what the data says instead of listening to government people pushing a narrative? ( yes we know- the vacines increase odds of survival if you contract the extrem case of disease)
The fact remains. These new type of Vaccines didn’t stop the spike and they may be promoting it . Israel’s spike went higher with vaccines than it did without. Chew on that steve o and quit pushing government propaganda.
It’s highly probable the vaccines promote covid due to people reducing common sense precautions.
Let’s just pretend you actually looked at the information in the articles for Israel again, clearly you did not but we will pretend you did. We will also have to pretend that your latest set of numbers are real, clearly they are not but we will pretend anyways for conversations sake.
So let’s use your 50/50 split vaccinated/unvaccinated number, if it were true would represent a massively disproportionate number of unvaccinated that were in the hospital since roughly 90% of the population is vaccinated. The same is true for Alaska, where DHSS reports from October 10 until October 16 there were 4,354 new covid cases 1,640 (38%) were vaccine breakthroughs, there were 87 new hospitalizations 14 (16%) of which were vaccine breakthroughs, and fatalities increased by 74, 16 (22%) of which were vaccine breakthroughs.
From October 3 until October 9 there were 5,695 new covid cases 2,147 (38%) were vaccine breakthroughs, there were 76 new hospitalizations 21 (28%) of which were vaccine breakthroughs, and fatalities increased by 16, 5 (31%) of which were vaccine breakthroughs.
From Sept 26 until October 2 there were 7,242 new covid cases 1,686 (23%) were vaccine breakthroughs, there were 109 new hospitalizations 16 (15%) of which were vaccine breakthroughs, and fatalities increased by 26, 1 (4%) of which was a vaccine breakthrough.
The report states that:
“From January 16–October 16, 2021, 64 deaths, 207 hospitalizations, and 16,970 cases with a VB infection were reported among Alaska residents aged ≥12 years. These counts are provisional and subject to change as data are compiled and reviewed. In that same time frame, a total of 62,099 cases, 1,445 hospitalizations, and 352 deaths were reported.
73% of all cases, 86% of all hospitalizations, and 82% of deaths among Alaska residents aged ≥12 years from January 16–October 16, 2021 were in people who were not fully vaccinated.”
In other words if you are vaccinated you have a much, much, much smaller likelihood of becoming ill, being hospitalized, and dying.
Steve o , its all cool.
I pulled up the link to Israel’s dashboard. Its all in Israeli.
Im not fluent in Israeli. You say the balance of vacinated infections has changed. Keep in mind the Israel’s now have a different definition of vacinated. To them currently you need the original vacination and up to 2-4 other boosters to keep your status as vaccinated. Otherwise they lump you with the unvaccinated or when they break it down they say 1 shot two shots or boosters. It’s highly likely you lumped the wrong groups together. That would make it look like a high percentage of unvaccinated were in hospital. The Israelis call people with 1-2 vaccines as un vacinated.
Were you able to find a specific vaccine status chart showing how many times each patient had been vaccinated? Thats what’s needed. Last time i looked at other source it was 60/40 with the people having received at least one vaccine at the 60% . ( Israel now calls many of those people unvaccinated because of deteriorating immunity.
There should be somewhere you can translate the page to English, my browser has a popup asking if I want it in Hebrew or English.
Israel classifies vaccination status as Vaccinated, Vaccinated without validity or not valid, Unvaccinated and they keep track of each group.
For hospitalization when grouping the Vaccinated without validity or not valid and the vaccinated groups together results in a about a 60/40 split with the unvaccinated making up the 60%. When grouping Vaccinated without validity or not valid and the Unvaccinated groups together results in a about a 20/80 split with the unvaccinated making up the 80%. The picture is much worse when speaking of the severely ill, as noted in the Haaretz article.
Steve o ,
When you say im pretending to look at the numbers again you don’t know your asre from your face. Keep it honest about what you can proove steve o . Dont lie about someone. They are easy articles for me to look up as most of them I kept as e mails or tabs . If i cared to I can proove the number of times i looked up or read . So quit spouting bs .
You were discussing haertz and Israel papers . You presented a talking gov head who misleadingly said the majority of hospitalized covid patients were unvaccinated. That was fslse per Israel data . You promoted bs steve o .
You attacked others news sources when they were mostly correct. You promoted a misleading picture.
Now slip in primarily Alaska data and i haven’t examined as closely because Israel is cutting edge data so iits been first read for me for years now. What i saw from a short look on your alaska data was no documented evidence but mostly you take short time shots . The question should be -What is it over a long period? Thats more important.
The biggest problem you purposely ignore is ,regardless of vacination rates the infection curve goes up even for the vacinated or unvaccinated. That points to faulty vaccines or methods and people living life under the mistaken assumption vaccines defeat the varients . These vaccines mostly dont but again the biggest problem is vaccinated people get a mild case , think they are not infected and spread the disease to unvaccinated and vacinated alike . Ive been heavily involved with vaccines for nearly half a century . Most vaccines work great. These do not . Which is typical for corona virus vaccines as the disease mutates to fast . I am highly pro vaccines. They save lives. These are different. They create all kinds of heath problems and they promote the spread of disease. Only the at risk population should use them until they are improved. Every one needs to realize the vaccines would work acceptablly if we acted like we weren’t vaccinated and used common sense practices. Sick peoples should stay isolated until two weeks recovery minimum. If you are ill stay away from people and don’t rely on a faulty vaccine . Maybe the vacination schedule is faulty. Many vaccines are given at a much faster interval to force the body to become immune. Apparently monthes in between isn’t getting the correct immune response. Maybe these vaccines are to hard on the body to give every few weeks.
I don’t know.
I apologize for thinking that you understood which articles I was talking about. It’s clear to me now that somehow you don’t know which articles I was referencing, since I don’t know anything about the articles you didn’t reference it should have been clear I was speaking about the ones I previously referenced. Once again, my apologies for the misunderstanding. Let’s cut out the middle an and go straight to the source shall we? The Israel Ministry of Health has a dashboard similar to the ones we have here. https://datadashboard.health.gov.il/COVID-19/general?tileName=VaccinationStatusAgg the percentages of hospitalized in Israel is not 50% vaccinated to 50% unvaccinated, the unvaccinated are over 50% of the hospitalized on raw numbers alone, just like they are here in Alaska. Even if the split were 50/50 as mentioned in my previous post, this would represent a massively disproportionate number of unvaccinated that were in the hospital since roughly 90% of the population is vaccinated.
Forgive me for intruding. But, gonna drop this bone right here to chew on since the “media” will not..
That story was on yahoo yesterday, needless to say they had a little different take on it. https://news.yahoo.com/florida-now-has-americas-lowest-covid-rate-does-ron-de-santis-deserve-credit-090013615.html
The truth is in there somewhere in either of those articles.
Thanks Steve. Im not sure what to tell you about discrepancies between what you say Israel’s government site claims and what the hospitals, journos , and scientific studies say . I would probably trust the latter over the government.
Im unable to pull it up in English for a review. Until prooven other wise i will take your word on it.
Im not going to take Israel government word on it until i see confirmation from scientific papers or a hospitals review .
All hospitals, scientists, reputable journalists say 60/40 or 50/50 . I recognize that could have recently changed and should change as Israel has been pushing boosters real hard which should increase immunity at least short term driving down the infections on the vacinated.
The important thing to realize is the problem of the vacinated being unsuspecting carriers spreading the disease to all . Which endangers the lives of everyone and causes the hospitalizations to increase and makes infection spikes higher. Killing people at a higher rate and being harder to avoid the disease.
Steve-O, fair enough but I am less inclined to trust proven liars though. A lot of the Democrats involed with Covid dictates are just pure evil. Their dictates are not based on science, but control.
Illinois reporting 77.7% of its Covid deaths last week were vaccinated.
117 total Covid deaths last week.
91 of them vaccinated if you look at the increase in cumulative weekly breakthroughs.
This should help you figure out how to translate that webpage.
I don’t know what browser you use, but it covers a bunch of them.
I understand the reluctance to trust government, the problem is who else has these numbers? Do we discount all governments the same or are some better than others? Should we trust what a third world government says but not trust our own, at some point we just have to go with the best available information…I certainly can’t decide for you what that is, but I certainly think the more information you can gather and share the more informed we will all be.
Steve o, thanks i will study the link you gave. Many thanks. Also you have a point. Usually better tgan nothing. Yet I prefer to look at actual studies because governments rarely give accurate picture. They are invested in their point of view wheras studies attempt impartiality. “ attempt” Imo ive noticed northern scandanavian countrys are a little more reliable and more in line with scientific studies but maybe im mistaken .
UKHSA report shows Vaccinated accounted for 80% of Covid-19 Deaths and 60% of Hospitalizations in the last 4 weeks
Public Health England has now been axed in favour of the new disturbingly named UK Health Security Agency, and one of the first reports published by the UKHSA shows that the Covid-19 vaccines do not work and have a negative effectiveness as low as minus-sixty-six-percent.
Charts & Graphs:
What we have learned the last 2 years is that the media, CDC, FDA, and federal gov in general are straight-up liars.
If I know Covid was a bioweapon then they know. Since their goals parallel the Chinese, accountability is swept under the rug.
Also, the average age of Covid death is 80yo. The average life expectancy is 76. Go figure.
As mentioned 2yrs ago this virus was released by the Chinese to thin the herd of the elderly, obese, and those who drain resources from society. Sadly, the Democrats saw opportunity to sway an election and still see opportunity today not in science, but in control.
Florida is full of old people. They are wide open, maskless and mandate free. Their numbers have dropped 88%..
Unfortunately we are further from the truth today than we were 2 years ago. Nothing but fraud, money, and political theater today. Oh, has that liar Fauci been arrested yet? Just curious.