Get out the shorts and the sun tan lotion, the U.S.National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association has joined Environment and Climate Change Canada in predicting global warming is about to revisit the most of the 49th state.
A possibly bad sign for those who fret over climate change, a possibly good sign for those who think the north still has enough a cold and dark.
“The temperature outlook for July through September 2018 shows that the majority of Alaska and northwest Canada have a 40 to 95 percent chance of above average temperature,” the climate prediction says.
The two federal agencies add that odds of warmth go up along the Pacific Rim edge of the continent and out into the Bering Sea region. Their mapping puts the Anchorage metropolitan area and the Kenai Peninsula smack in the middle of the zone with an 80 percent chance of balmy weather.
That’s the good news.
The bad news?
“The precipitation outlook for July through September 2018 shows that most of Alaska, the Yukon, and the northwest part of the Northwest Territories have a 40 to 60 percent chance of above normal precipitation,” the report says.
And rain has a way of washing away perceptions of nice weather.
Remember that cold spring that visited Alaska’s urban core earlier? It really wasn’t.
Temperatures for Anchorage and Fairbanks, the state’s two biggest cities, were near normal to slightly above normal. The difference was that they were wet.
The snow and rain apparently washed away thoughts of nice weather.
I like to follow the ENSO forecasts,very similar and very timely.
But if you want to be spoonfed exact outcomes you will be dissapointed.
Its the trends that are important,the oscillations through the patterns
Wouldn’t a “a 40 to 60 percent chance of above normal precipitation,” also be the samething as a 40 to 60 percent chance of normal or below normal precipitation? Way to go out on a limb on that prediction! These are the scientists we trust to make sound decisions on climate change?
Mathematically I could say there is a 33.3% chance that precipitation will be lower than normal, 33.3% chance it will be normal, and a 33.3% chance it will be above average. That worthless prediction I just gave didn’t even cost one tax payer dime.
Steve-O, we sure thank you for your prediction, however:
What their 40-60% chance of above normal precipitation has to do with is the map of the area that is shown on the link. If you look at the map you will see that not all of Alaska and Yukon is the same and that some are 40%, some 50%, etc. Further, it also states that a portion of Coastal Ak along the Southern Coast, most of NW BC and most of inland NWT have a 40-70% likelihood of below normal precipitation.
No problem, and all at no charge Bill. I gave you the same information that NOAA and the Canadians gave you, t might be warmer or normal or cooler and it might be wetter or normal or drier. Even when they give an absurdly large range they say it maybe-might-could-possibly-probably happen…it’s worthless information because that’s all they have…but they got paid for their worthless info.
I tried Steve-O but you still don’t have a clue as to what they’ve given out. Did you even look at their precipitation map?
Weather/climate forecasting has never been an exact science-sort of like forecasting fish.
Don’t worry about it Bill, it’s not your job to decipher the nonsense these people put out. When they make statements like “a 40 to 60 percent chance of above normal precipitation” they might as well follow it up by saying there is a 40 to 60 percent chance of normal or below normal precipitation, because it’s the same thing. When they say there is a 95% chance of something that is atleast a definitive statement, even if they are wrong 50% of the time!
Rain is good if it’s going to be warmer than usual. It helps prevent the horrible wildfires that are seen all across the lower 48 when it’s hot.