Get off my lawn!/Clipart Panda
An old northland joke describes an Alaska sourdough as someone who has gone sour on the country but lacks the dough to pay for passage to friendlier environments to the south.
And a poll conducted for the Alaska Chamber suggests there might be more than a little truth to the joke these days. In the current economic climate, it found that Alaska old-timers hold the darkest view of where the state is headed while almost two-thirds of newcomers are cheerily optimistic.
A full 65 percent of those who’ve spent nine years or less in-state judge the economy good, Dittman Research reported. Outside the cheechako group, however, optimism faded fast.
A bare majority – 52 percent – of those resident for 10 to 20 years saw the economy as good and for the true sourdoughs – 20-plus years in-country – the number dropped to 43 percent.
In other words, 57 percent of today’s sourdoughs thought the economy had wobbled into the ditch.
Given the poll was conducted back in March, there might be more of them thinking that way now. Dittman pollster Matt Larkin said that tracking polls since spring show views on where Alaska is headed and what is happening with the economy have only worsened since Gov. Mike Dunleavy and the Alaska Legislature went to war over the state budget.
After the Legislature refused to make significant cuts in state spending, Dunleavy vetoed about $400 million from the $5.3 billion state budget. Opponents of the cuts accused him of trying to destroy the University of Alaska, which lost 40 percent of its state funding; doom the sick who take advantage of Medicaid; cripple the elderly; and continue the state’s already three-year-long recession.
“The public hearing that stuff,” Larkin said, “you know how much the economy is about consumer confidence.”
Partisan views
How one views the economy also appears to be colored by politics. Republicans, who supported Dunleavy run for governor in November, are more upbeat about the state than their fellow Alaskans.
Sixty-one percent thought the economy was perking along well back in March while an equal percentage of nonpartisans thought recessionary Alaska sucks. Democrats were in the middle, but leaning toward the latter at 52 percent bad.
Given a margin of error of nearly 4 percent on the poll of 705 likely Alaska voters, that number could be even worse than it looks or split the Dem view 50-50 given that 44 percent thought the economy bad.
Dems represented the largest group of Alaskans undecided on this issue. Four percent of them couldn’t make up their mind. Republicans and nonpartisans all had up or down views.
Those undecided Democrats have likely picked a side since Dunleavy took that big, red pen to the budget in an effort to reduce a state deficit of more than $1 billion.
Opponents of the budget cuts have forecast big time gloom and doom. Anchorage Mayor Ethan Berkowitz, a one-time Democrat candidate for governor, declared a “civil emergency” because of the loss of $5.8 million in state funding for local facilities to help house and feed the homeless.
A statement from the mayor’s office predicted that the cuts – which equal about 1.1 percent of the municipal budget for the year – will spark an “unprecedented housing and public health and safety crisis.”
ADEC argued in a prepared statement that “sources of renewal in the economy cannot compensate for the damage being done by Alaska’s ongoing policy-induced recession.”
The belief the end is near runs so deep most media didn’t even try to balance their reporting with the views of economist Ed King, the former chief economist for the Alaska Office of Management and Budget.
Now back in the private sector at King Economics, he pushed back at early July claims of a growing recession emanating from the UA Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER), an office tied to the state entity taking the biggest budget hit. ISER projected the budget cuts would cost the state 4,217 jobs.
King disagreed and forecast an increase of 800 and then challenged ISER.
“It’s more simple than that. ISER put out a forecast, so I will publish my own. When the data are in, we can compare the results. If I end up being wrong, I’ll own that fact.”
More than state jobs
King agreed with ISER that the budget cuts would cost state jobs, but he predicted an uptick in oil patch jobs as development continues on the Liberty, GMT2, and Pikka, and other projects; continued growth in the tourism industry; a mini-boom in the construction industry thanks to military projects underway in the state; and a slight bump in the trade sector.
He did, however, concede a continuation of the recession is possible. (Some are calling the half percent growth in jobs in the last labor report the end of the state’s great recession, but the half percent is smaller than the margin of error in job tallies.)
“With the vetoes in place, Alaska slips back into a recession in 31 percent of the simulations I ran,” King wrote. “That compares to 12 percent of the simulations with no vetoes. Most of those situations occur due to global economic forces pushing down on growth everywhere or another collapse in oil price.
“So, the most I would be willing to say is that the near-term chances of another recession go from unlikely to possible due to these vetoes. But, that is not a good justification for overriding them.”
How one likes those odds depends on how they like to gamble. There is, by King’s measure, a 3-in-10 chance of a recession with the vetoes and a 1-in-10 chance without. The vetoes double the chances of a continuing recession in this view, but the overall odds remain pretty low.
Dunleavy is so far standing firm on his budget decisions. He Monday attacked continuing legislative efforts to find a way to restore funding for some state programs and especially the University of Alaska, which lost 40 percent of its state funding and accounted for about 33 percent of the entire budget cut.
North to the future
Alaskans who’ve been here a long time have seen these tussles before. Several governors have pledged to cut state spending when oil prices or oil production fell and along with it the bulk of state revenue which comes from oil royalties and taxes.
Larkin said he can’t be sure why their view is so grim this time around nor why newcomers to Alaska have a far more positive view of the state’s future, but offered a few opinions, starting with the fact most of the cheechakoes are younger and came north in response to a job offer.
“They generally have a more positive, forward-looking view,” he said, while the pessimists comprise an “older demographic, better informed, with a better perspective.”
Or certainly, one shaped by a lot of long, dark winters with weather that can wear on both man and beast. The dark more than the snow, the wind, the rain, the blizzards, the snowpocalypses and the general gloom has a way of taking a little of the shine off the Alaska mystique that colors the view of new arrivals.
As the 41-year-old Larkin, now approaching his 20 anniversary in Alaska observed, “I just remember being blown away with the place. I can identify with those (new) Alaskans.”
They look at the glass, see it half full, and think they’re lucky to be here. The sourdoughs look at the same glass, see it half empty, and wonder why they’re still hanging around.
Historically, the latter didn’t hang on long before bailing either. Alaska’s demographic profile used to look like a pyramid with a lot of young people at the bottom and a few old ones at the time. The days it looks more like the Michelin Man with a big bulge above the middle and an oversize head.
That’s about 10 percent of the population. Alaska’s elder population remains the lowest in the nation, but percentage-wise it’s about five times what it was in 1970. And many in this could-be bounty of wise, old elders – if the polls are to be believed – have morphed into grumpy old and men and women driving the Debbie Downer Syndrome now sweeping the state.
27 years “in country”, and you published this on my 65th birthday, so I reckon I have sourdough cred on at least 2 counts. My view of the economy is that we are past due for a bust, and it’s about damned time it happened. The more of those lightweight cheechakos who want to turn Alaska into a chilly version of the Lesser-48 who leave, the better quality of life those of us who are tough enough, bold enough or stupid enough to keep on livin’ the dream can maintain the dream we’re livin’.
I’m not to worried about financial direction of the state . Way better than it was pre statehood through 70s . In fact it’s pretty darn good right now for most people. Oil and federal teat has made this place easy living .What’s more concerning is a lack of common cents 😉. Citizens let the media dictate formulate what they should think and believe. Media and Big tech are controlling the narrative Time to wake up and take back our country one vote at a time . I fear for our country, for the loss of pride in our founders efforts. All of them . They sacrificed. Be it the ones who worked in chains or the ones who gave their lives fighting for what they believed was right . Every homesteader every pilgrim every slave is a great part of our nations history. Don’t vote for shysters or people who claim you can have it for free . Only hard work and sweat pay. Dunleavy May have his faults,he may not balance the budget how you Would but at least he shows he is fully mature and recognizes the importance of a balanced budget and fulfilling his promises. A breath of fresh air in the stie of politics. Suffer now to make the future better is how our forefathers brought this country to greatness. Do the same for Alaska . Ingnore the media who clamors of calamity like wind in the leaves , it will pass ,stay the course like true explorers. This state is for hardy souls not nancies who cry at the slightest outlook of pain . Alaskans love pain of one form or another. Without suffering and work there can be little improvements. Ingenuity is our mark . We will find a way .
The “truth” is…we are spoiled rotten!
The people who want a hand out and keep on the gravy train we have been on for the last 40 years would see the glass half empty. I wonder about those who came to Alaska prior to the oil give a ways and enjoyed the true beauty and bounty of Alaska?. If they did recognize the gift Alaska is, without the fluff and gloss of oily services, then the view is full and optimistic as long as we don’;t continue to muck it up.
It’s not cheechako versus sourdough that mainly accounts for these numbers.
It’s mainly youth versus senior.
Ascribing these statistics to time-in-state is similar to the Blue State-Red State mistake. No, it’s Blue city-Red rural.
But even worse – omg Craig! – by your own definition, transplants CANNOT be sourdoughs until they are at least about 40 years old … and a lot of newcomers are no longer youth, by the time they have the wherewithall to stick in AK.
Democrats got special issues. Not only is there a general Derangement Syndrome, but:
1. DS originated in Alaska, like AIDS came from the Congo jungle … when McCain picked Gov. Palin to be VP.
2. Now, having lost ANWR, the Dems of AK are doubly-striken.
Truth is, better metrics for identifying successful transplants to AK would clear this up. But just counting years & decades is simple … yeah, too simple.
So … do you need to have shot a bear off your foot? Or does it suffice to have gotten lost and/or trapped a time or few … and made it home without the mishap ever becoming known to the Authorities or Media?
Almost a decade ago I got lost off-trail in the Bailey Range of the Olympic National Park. I could actually see Hurricane Ridge (and several other peaks), so this was not the deepest lost ever. But to forestall embarrasment, I needed to use an underused (primitive) Magellan 310 GPS, regulation USGS (UTM) topo maps, AND THE GPS BOOK.
Had to change the GPS “datum” to get UTM numbers. But once I did, it told me to go … totally the wrong way. But I shrugged, made a sandwich and walked 5 minutes that way it said to go … and there below my ridge was the little lake I’d been at earlier … and I was headed home on my known route, instead of brutalizing myself for days.
Maps, GPS and BOOK, all in zip-locks. Woo-hoo … do I get AK-cred?
Off topic but here goes.
$10,000 guadrillion dollars. That is $10,000,000,000,000,000,000.00 Dollars. That is how much worth of nickel and iron is in an asteroid discovered by NASA. With current technology we could design spacecraft to guide the asteroid into earths orbit. I suspect Musk and Bezos are already secretly planning a mission.
However, once they have the asteroid orbiting conveniently over our heads and assuming they can develop a delivery system for mining and delivery to Earth that is profitable, It would take forever to use that much iron and nickel.
It’s going to be a very touchy thing, to steer any asteroid TOWARD Earth. NASA has talked about doing a small one, for study purposes … but you’ll notice this idea remains at the talking-stage.
I bet the Rule becomes, work the asteroid-lump where it lies, and send processed material home in properly-controlled transport vehicles.
16 Psyche is really big (223 km) and really far away (3 AU). Gonna take a LOT of thrusties to move it anywhere. While metals are nice, the most valuable thing you can find off planet is water ice, which is everywhere, especially in bodies whose orbits cross that of earth, making them relatively easy to get to. Find water ice, and you have propellant, something to breathe, something to grow plants with, and radiation shielding. There are those who believe the long-exposed exteriors of comets may be high in hydrocarbons (think kerogens). Nobody’s proven that yet, though some spectroscopic results are promising. Cheers –
16 Psyche may be a bridge too far. Do we have enough confidence that we wont screw up and collide it into Earth? I have recently learned that the Moon may have deposits of strategic minerals that could be mined profitably. That makes sense. We may also soon see a boom in Alaska mining projects for strategic minerals as the Chinese now control 75% of the world commodity.
Our boom and bust economy has always been here.
From WW2, 64 earthquake recovery (remember the All-American City?), Pipeline construction, OIL Tax and Royalty INCOME, Exxon Valdez recovery, oil field exploration/production jobs, high oil prices, profligate State spending, growth of the PF and, the cherry on top: the Dividend.
Now things have tightened up due to low oil prices/ production and the result is conflicts and negativity in a declining economy.
The way I see it is we were a way over-heated economy because of all these factors. Coming down to earth was inevitable.
On the other hand we are even more fortunate than ever because we have no income tax, no state sales tax and a sovereign wealth fund producing income to the State of $3 billion/year that otherwise would have to be raised by taxes or massive cuts in services.
Income from the PF now exceeds our annual oil income and this trend is likely to become even more exaggerated in the future. With prudent financial decisions now (ask Moody’s for advice), we have the potential of guaranteeing ever-greater individual benefits (such as the Dividend or an Individual Trust Account) into the future.
The first step to financial solvency is to answer these questions:
1. What is the purpose of the Constitutional Budget Reserve Fund?
2. Should this Fund be reimbursed up to $14 Bilion to satisfy its purpose as a budget reserve?
3. Should some of the PFER be used for this purpose (while it is flush with Earnings)?
In my opinion the ugly truth is in effect we used the CBRF to prop up Dividends the past 4-5 years. We gave ourselves a performance bonus while the State was running in the red.
I agree the boom & bust pattern is Core Science in Alaska.
But I think the current bust is thus far so mild that – by respectable Alaska standards – it hardly even qualifies.
The post-pipeline crash in the md-80s …. What, better than 1/4 of the entire population left the state?
The Permanent Fund dividend is too small to iron-out the swings … when a family is down to counting on the dividend, they’re usually too far down. The PF is mainly a political football … a NUCLEAR political football.
Sometime this month I’ll observe my 45th anniversary of living either in Anchorage or Juneau. In that time I’ve been from Ketchikan to Barrow, from the Bering Sea to the Canadian Border, and most places in between. I was involved with organized labor in the late Seventies and saw the fine edge of panic in labor leaders as the oil pipeline wound down, the gas line didn’t wind up, and oil revenue to the State wasn’t yet having a meaningful effect on the economy. In those days organized labor was dominated by the building trades and the Teamsters. Organized labor had dominated Democrat politics since Territorial days, but the very leftist Ad Hoc Democrats, the McGovern wing, had risen to power with Jay Hammond’s defeat of Bill Egan and the old guard. Public employees for the most part were not in AFL-CIO affiliated unions and while influential politically had nothing like the power of the trades unions.
I left my association with labor in early ’80 and armed with the courage of my connections went into private business. In the one premeditatedly intelligent thing I’ve ever done somebody made me a good offer and I sold the business in the Fall of ’83 and relocated to Juneau where the economy was going strong as fears of a capital move had subsided. Business was quite good at first but by the spring of ’85 the economy was noticeably slacking. Even after the oil price crash, the “fundamentals” of the Juneau economy were sound, and if the city had just imposed a news blackout things would have been fine. People heard the news from Anchorage and Fairbanks and just stopped buying. I ran for the safety of a job with the federal government; they get the money first and can print more. Then a divorce stopped me from rattling around rural Alaska for weeks at a time and I took a job doing labor relations for the State.
I watched the mid-Eighties oil price crash and its aftermath from the 10th Floor of the Juneau State Office Building and from hearing rooms and across negotiations tables. The State had been at war with its unions since the ’86 Legislature refused to fund the negotiated wage increases for SFY 87. That was a hot war for about five years and a seething, sullen cold war until the “00s.
Unlike today, while we too tried to keep the economy from getting worse because of State layoffs, but we clamped down hard on State wages. We told them flatly that they wouldn’t see a wage increase unless and until we saw an increase in the Anchorage CPI. The Exxon Valdez cleanup put a little upward blip in the CPI and we gave some wage increases, which turned out to be the last significant wage increases State employees saw until I put a 3% general increase on the table in ’04. The State’s Operating Budget stayed stable and pretty flat from ’86 until ’06
To me the most significant distinction today is first that since AFSCME took over the General Government Unit of State employees in ’88, public employees have become the dominant force in the AFL-CIO and organized labor led by the AFL-CIO is the dominant force in Democrat politics. Mix in the healthcare racket with the public employee union racket and they are the dominant force in Alaska politics. The unions could buy a Governor in ’94, but they couldn’t buy a Legislature. No matter how much Knowles wanted to “help” his union friends, if it took money, the Legislature wouldn’t give him any.
We started the climb in ’06 as Palin and Knowles were out there promising everybody everything and we responded by increasing the budget significantly for the first time in two decades. Then both Palin and Parnell just threw money at State government. The Executive Branch is little larger than it was when I started in ’87, but it is one Helluva lot more expensive. My successor is at about the same place in the State’s step system as I was when I retired and she makes half again more than I did when I retired and has two deputies that make more than I did as a director. It is that way almost everywhere in State government. There’s been some inflation in the 13 years since I retired but not nearly that much.
And now the Legislature doesn’t act as a brake because not only could the unions install a Governor, they could buy first one body of the Legislature under Walker and now both bodies under Dunleavy. The Senate Republicans aren’t quite chattel like the Democrats and quislings in the House are, but they’re afraid of the unions and the healthcare racket, which means the Governor really can’t govern. I’d venture there is considerable overlap between the set of older, long term Alaskans and the set of Alaskans that voted for Dunleavy because we knew the budget had to be reined in. Right now, the unions, the education racket, and the healthcare racket have the whole pie and a Legislature that is willing to let them keep the pie despite the Governor. Obviously electing a Governor wasn’t enough to get responsible government for Alaska. A general tax seems almost inevitable, and as soon as they impose one that exceeds my PERS cost of living allowance, there’ll be yet another house for sale in South Anchorage.
It’s easy to tell who knows what they are talking about, the state hasn’t been in recession for almost a year. The ones saying these minor cuts will “keep the local economy in recession for two to three more years” clearly do not know what they are talking about, because we are not in a recession. Fear mongering like this, especially from an organization that is supposed to support economic growth can lead to public opinion being against the factual data. Using government funds to promote getting more government funds is plainly wrong. If any government can’t survive a 1.1% cut then we need to figure out why, as that is the reason we are in this mess…a government too big to fail is destined to do just that.
I’m not sour on Alaska. But I have become sour on Alaskans. The hissy fits over an issue one would think is simple, balancing the state budget and living within one’s means, are mind-boggling. Proof that many Alaskans are addicted to free money and have no grasp of basic economics. Alaskans aren’t the sharpest knives in the drawer.
Hate to follow-up on your political lines but Democrat feel the Trump economy is bad, even with the lowest black, hispanic, and female unemployment ever. Not to mention millions off Food Stamps.
These same Dems think the “our best days are behind us” Obama economy was great.
A mental disconnect.. Please do not quote the Wash. Post, “FactCheck”, NYT, etc.. about how “great” Obama was.
Bryan,
Your Trump economy is in a deep hole…
Look at the continuous “raising of the debt ceiling” and the 22 Trillion in National Debt.
(All time record)
Add on the additional 1.5 Trillion in student loan debt plaguing the country and you can see the bottomless pit we are headed into.
Then we have the “Trump Tariffs”…
“…the 10 percent levy on $300 billion of imports that Mr. Trump announced on Thursday, which would take effect Sept. 1, is expected to hit consumers where it hurts.”
(NYT)
Can you say inflation and the largest income gap in several generations?
What we are seeing in AK is just more of the same…free passes to corporations who do “business” like take our oil for peanuts on the dollar and cutting programs that help the more vulnerable members of society.
Don’t worry POTUS is moving more troops to Saudi and soon there will be another “line in the sand” drawn on world maps…only this time the U.S. military might get a little more than they bargain for in the middle east.
I am reminded of a very old saying by Augustine:
“Hope has two beautiful daughters; their names are Anger and Courage.
Anger at the way things are, and Courage to see that they do not remain as they are.”
Steve Stine,
The economy and the debt are two different things. Student debt is a third different thing. Debt is not unimportant, but like Pres. Clinton observed in terms of elections, “It’s the economy that counts most”.
All these great jobs-stats translate directly into increased tax-revenues. Reworked trade deals reduce market-losses. If your economic house is in order, you can afford more debt, for longer. Just don’t let it become your Drug Of Choice … we have to sober up & retire some debt, before the economy goes soft, as it always does at some point.
The NYT of course just plain hates Trump’s slimy guts … but their quote you use is already a throw-away, because several other high-profile tariffs (steel & aluminum eg) were predicted to hurt consumers too, but didn’t. That consumers do often end up holding the bag on these deals … is not a bug, but a design-feature … it’s avoidable, and Trump is avoiding that outcome.
Trump-opponents are upset that he negated the deal Obama made with Iran … so they’re painting a picture in which Trump gets into a politically damaging military conflict in the Middle East. However, Trump lined up a strong set of allies in the region, before he rocked Iran’s boat. Democrats are fooling themselves, implying that Trump is just blundering into trouble. The Saudis are now working with Israel, which is dramatic progress … and Iran knows it would be Themselves vs a Strong US Coalition.
It’s perfectly reasonable to be disappointed that Trump won, and he’s having success. But like these people who get down in the mud and wrestle with pig-Trump … he loves it, and they come away dirty & smelly. Likewise, claiming that Trump’s sky is falling when voters can see plain as day that the sun is shining and the crops are coming up good … his opponents only further-weaken their own chances in coming elections.
Ted Clayton,
I would strongly disagree with your comment:
“The economy and the debt are two different things.”
The truth is they are interconnected and inseparable in our financial system these days.
“The higher the consumer debt and interest rates on credit cards and loans, the more foreign investments the country receives.
This is bad for you, but good for the federal government.
High national debt means little economic growth… As the federal debt mounts, the government will spend more of its budget on interest costs, increasingly crowding out public investments.
Over the next 10 years, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that interest costs will total $7 trillion under current law. In just under a decade, interest on the debt will be the third largest “program” in the federal budget.”
https://www.pgpf.org/the-fiscal-and-economic-challenge/fiscal-and-economic-impact
Steve, didn’t your Obama double the debt from $9.5 Trillion to $20 Trillion in a mere 8yrs? The most debt ever created by one person in the entire planet’s history?
Steve Stine,
Debt is unseemly. Like gambling – another thing we used to condemn, and now milk. I avoid it because I don’t like it … and I wish the Government avoided it too. However, I recognize that’s not how the bigger world works.
For one, Renting Money is a known money-making strategy. Yeah, there are the interest-payments … but with the amplfied capital one is in a much-improved revenue-earning situation.
Not that the US Gov is in dept for Capital Improvements … but that 7 Trillion debt-service isn’t stuffed into a mattress … it goes to Banks, and they in turn have to do something with it … typically, Rent It!
The way it works is, you got $10,000 real-money, and you borrow $50 or $100,000 on it. Now, given decent business acumen, the paper money can be earning $5 to $10,000 (10% earnings on 100 Gs) … so now your original real 10 grand is earning 50% to 100%, which is very fancy earnings.
Yer a sap, to just accept interest on the 10 grand, when by getting with the program, that can be interest-earnings on $100,000 of someone else’s rented money. That’s the theory anyway!
So National Dept is an undercover scheme to pump more money into Banks, who do not stuff it into mattresses, but put it out in the economy (likely, the global economy) doin good things … very possibly better things & more business-like things than what the Gov went into dept for, in the first place!
I don’t personally care for it; I wish the world was simpler … but we’ve been jacking up the debt for a long time … and the USA is the sole global superpower … no other power even sees, much less eats our dust, because we’re that far out ahead of them.
Ted,
We can agree to disagree on the National Debt…
You do know that each time the federal reserve “creates” more money that they must sell off government bonds or “T notes” to generate this new “bubble” in the banking system.
These T- notes go to forgein countries like Germany and China who then “invest” in a share of America.
Ron Paul is also concerned on this out of control debt cycle that allows more and more “shares” of America to go to forgein banks.
He said:
“The country’s feeling a lot better, but it’s all on borrowed money,” he said. “It’s a bubble economy in many, many different ways and it’s going to come unglued.”
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.newsweek.com/us-falling-apart-soviet-union-collapse-ron-paul-says-765687%3famp=1
Steve,
You prove Ted’s point with your latest copy and paste. Try and read what he wrote and then your copy and paste again. Renting money and T-notes…borrowing money to make money. Of course the economy and debt are two different things, one produces the other takes. Are they interconnected and inseparable in our times, sure. But they are also two different things. When other countries stop buying T-notes we will know our economy isn’t worth the debt load we’ve taken on. As long as they are buying what we are selling our elected representatives have decided to let the good times roll. I would prefer we never test that boundary but with the amount of ignorance in the world today, especially when dealing with financial acumen, I doubt that will happen.
There aren’t many national figures espousing true fiscal sanity. You have taken to citing Ron Paul, I would suggest you see what his son Rand stands for since Ron’s time has passed even if his message hasn’t.
Do not be a Negative Nancy, leave us senior citizens alone!
“In the United States today, we have more than our share of the nattering nabobs of negativism”.
Spiro T Agnew 9/11/70
VP of USA
What an a**h***!
“The people who cast the votes don’t decide an election, the people who count the votes do” Joseph Stalin